The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Parramatta Eels v Gold Coast Titans

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 04:01 UTC

Final: Parramatta Eels 10–52 Gold Coast Titans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parramatta Eels (Local)

Prediction 55.51%1.80fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -6.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.72%55.55%55.51%57.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.641.7264.52%60.89%60.98%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 40.65%2.46fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.22%40.48%40.65%41.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.272.252.4047.17%44.07%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.84%26.06fair odd
EV +18.95%
Edge +0.611%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.97%3.84%5.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.1122.0031.005.56%4.33%4.55%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parramatta Eels (Local): 55.51%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 40.65%; Draw: 3.84%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.95%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.12%EV -8.96%E -5.47%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +18.95%E +0.611%K +0.632%G +0.120%8.6%2026-04-12 03:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.24%EV -10.63%E -6.60%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.22%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -0.234%E -0.009%K -0.009%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 04:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -8.41%E -5.10%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.30%EV -10.56%E -4.80%K -8.80%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -4.07%E -0.163%K -0.170%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-07 08:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.77%EV -13.96%E -9.01%K -25.38%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.77%EV -13.81%E -6.52%K -12.33%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.46%EV -4.07%E -0.163%K -0.170%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-12 03:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.94%EV -8.96%E -5.47%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV -15.58%E -0.708%K -0.742%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 04:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -11.18%E -6.99%K -18.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.40%EV -10.56%E -4.80%K -8.80%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.04%EV -15.58%E -0.708%K -0.742%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 04:00
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.89%EV -7.30%E -4.37%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.74%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -19.42%E -0.925%K -0.971%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-08 07:59
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.63%E -3.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -2.43%E -1.01%K -1.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -30.93%E -1.72%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 01:40
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.72%EV -4.52%E -2.63%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -30.93%E -1.72%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 03:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%0.5%2026-04-12 04:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%3.4%2026-04-12 03:50
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%4.1%2026-04-12 03:59
PlayUp🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%4.7%2026-04-12 04:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-04-12 01:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-04-12 02:45
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-12 03:35
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-12 03:54
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-12 03:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-12 03:50
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-12 03:24
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%5.8%2026-04-11 23:45
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%5.8%2026-04-11 23:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-04-12 01:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%6.4%2026-04-12 04:00
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%6.4%2026-04-12 04:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%6.4%2026-04-12 04:00
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%6.9%2026-04-12 04:00
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%8.5%2026-04-12 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%9.6%2026-04-12 04:00
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%9.6%2026-04-12 04:00