The School of Odds
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North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 09:37 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 24–10 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 75.49%1.32fair odd
EV -7.90%
Edge -6.48%
Kelly -35.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.70%75.44%75.43%76.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.201.211.2285.47%83.25%82.99%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 21.61%4.63fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%21.64%21.86%22.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.164.154.4025.64%24.02%24.10%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.90%34.48fair odd
EV +16.01%
Edge +0.400%
Kelly +0.410%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 40.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.24%2.91%2.71%3.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
25.0032.6334.5040.004.00%3.07%2.90%2.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 75.49%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 21.61%; Draw: 2.90%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 34.48. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 40.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.01%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.76%EV -10.17%E -8.54%K -53.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -11.40%E -2.78%K -3.68%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.25%EV +16.01%E +0.400%K +0.410%G +0.066%10.9%2026-08-29 09:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.91%EV -10.92%E -9.25%K -60.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -11.40%E -2.78%K -3.68%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.24%EV +16.01%E +0.400%K +0.410%G +0.066%11.6%2026-08-29 09:35
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.21%EV -7.90%E -6.48%K -35.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.92%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.66%EV +1.50%E +0.043%K +0.044%G +0.001%7.6%2026-08-29 09:29
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.21%EV -7.90%E -6.48%K -35.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.92%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.66%EV +1.50%E +0.043%K +0.044%G +0.001%7.6%2026-08-29 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.39%EV -7.90%E -6.48%K -35.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -9.24%E -2.20%K -2.89%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV -1.40%E -0.041%K -0.042%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 09:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.70%EV -8.66%E -7.15%K -41.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.87%EV -15.73%E -4.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.43%EV -24.60%E -0.946%K -0.984%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-29 09:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.35%EV -11.68%E -9.98%K -68.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.30%EV -15.73%E -4.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.35%EV -24.60%E -0.946%K -0.984%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-29 09:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.35%EV -9.41%E -7.84%K -47.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.03%EV -7.08%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -27.50%E -1.10%K -1.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 04:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%0.8%2026-08-29 09:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.42%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.58%4.1%2026-08-29 09:15
Bet Right🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%4.9%2026-08-29 09:35
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-08-29 08:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%5.0%2026-08-29 01:15
PlayUp🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-08-29 09:35
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.58%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.42%5.2%2026-08-29 09:30
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%5.2%2026-08-29 09:30
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%5.4%2026-08-29 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%5.5%2026-08-29 09:25
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%5.5%2026-08-29 09:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%5.8%2026-08-29 02:35
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-08-29 09:35
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-08-29 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-08-29 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-08-29 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%7.4%2026-08-29 09:35
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%7.4%2026-08-29 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.27%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%9.5%2026-08-29 09:35