The School of Odds

North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 02:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -53.48%
Kelly -114.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.30%0.00%0.00%51.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.871.871.871.8753.48%53.48%53.48%53.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -50.76%
Kelly -103.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.70%0.00%0.00%48.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.971.971.971.9750.76%50.76%50.76%50.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%4.2%2026-07-05 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.