The School of Odds

North Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters

2026-07-30 09:50 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 36.96%2.71fair odd
EV -7.98%
Edge -3.20%
Kelly -5.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.79%36.96%36.96%37.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.302.382.382.4943%42%42%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 59.76%1.67fair odd
EV -7.98%
Edge -5.18%
Kelly -14.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.22%59.76%59.76%59.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.471.501.501.5468%67%67%65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.29%30.43fair odd
EV -7.98%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.295%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.29%3.29%3.29%4.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
20.0023.0022.0028.005%4%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet2.49I 40.16%NM 36.96%EV -7.98%E -3.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.76%EV -7.98%E -5.18%K -14.77%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV -7.98%E -0.285%K -0.295%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 04:44
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.79%EV -9.45%E -3.86%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.29%EV -9.17%E -6.03%K -17.64%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -24.41%E -1.06%K -1.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-22 04:45
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.47%EV -15.00%E -6.52%K -11.54%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 58.22%EV -11.56%E -7.81%K -24.09%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.31%EV -34.27%E -1.71%K -1.80%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-22 04:45
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.40%EV -15.00%E -6.52%K -11.54%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 58.51%EV -12.16%E -8.27%K -25.87%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.10%EV -30.98%E -1.48%K -1.55%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-22 04:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%5.0%2026-07-22 04:45