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North Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-07-30 09:54 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 12–82 Sydney Roosters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%37.13%37.45%38.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.442.472.5543.10%41.02%40.49%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 58.99%1.70fair odd
EV -5.61%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -9.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%59.08%58.99%60.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.541.6067.57%64.61%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.56%28.08fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -0.142%
Kelly -0.148%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.42%3.79%3.56%4.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0022.7821.0027.005.00%4.39%4.76%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 37.45%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 58.99%; Draw: 3.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 27.00, with an expected value of -3.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.67%EV -11.51%E -7.67%K -23.02%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -10.96%E -0.438%K -0.457%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 08:54
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.39%E -2.55%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.61%E -3.51%K -9.35%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -28.77%E -1.44%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-30 09:50
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.39%E -2.55%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.61%E -3.51%K -9.35%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -28.77%E -1.44%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-30 09:49
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -6.39%E -2.55%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.38%E -4.70%K -12.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.60%EV -28.77%E -1.44%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-30 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.39%EV -7.51%E -3.04%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.19%EV -7.97%E -5.11%K -14.23%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.42%EV -3.84%E -0.142%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-30 09:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.34%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.18%EV -9.15%E -5.94%K -16.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.48%EV -28.77%E -1.44%K -1.51%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-30 09:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.32%EV -9.15%E -5.94%K -16.95%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.45%EV -7.40%E -0.285%K -0.296%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-30 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.32%EV -9.15%E -5.94%K -16.95%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.45%EV -7.40%E -0.285%K -0.296%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-30 09:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.34%EV -13.13%E -5.66%K -9.94%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 58.53%EV -12.69%E -8.57%K -26.44%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.13%EV -25.21%E -1.20%K -1.26%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-30 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%1.0%2026-07-30 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%3.7%2026-07-30 09:14
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%4.4%2026-07-30 09:45
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%4.5%2026-07-30 07:35
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-07-28 07:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-07-28 07:04
SportsBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%5.0%2026-07-30 09:15
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-30 08:44
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-30 09:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-07-30 07:25
Dabble (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-07-27 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%5.8%2026-07-30 08:30
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%5.8%2026-07-30 08:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%5.8%2026-07-30 08:30
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%5.8%2026-07-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%5.8%2026-07-30 08:29
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%6.1%2026-07-30 08:29
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%6.1%2026-07-30 08:30
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%6.1%2026-07-30 08:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%6.2%2026-07-28 07:14

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