The School of Odds
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North Queensland Cowboys v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 06:05 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 30–18 South Sydney Rabbitohs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 58.34%1.71fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -8.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.98%58.31%58.34%58.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.561.551.6267.57%64.10%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 37.46%2.67fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.37%37.46%37.46%38.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.402.6044.44%41.10%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.20%23.79fair odd
EV +17.68%
Edge +0.631%
Kelly +0.655%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.29%4.23%4.20%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.2923.0028.005.56%4.49%4.35%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 58.34%; South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit): 37.46%; Draw: 4.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.68%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.98%EV -7.24%E -4.56%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -10.85%E -4.56%K -7.86%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +17.68%E +0.631%K +0.655%G +0.116%8.5%2026-05-24 06:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.24%EV -13.66%E -9.23%K -28.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.31%EV -15.72%E -6.98%K -12.57%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.45%EV +5.07%E +0.203%K +0.211%G +0.011%16.0%2026-05-24 06:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.62%EV -10.16%E -6.60%K -18.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.62%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.21%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.76%EV +0.867%E +0.036%K +0.038%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-24 05:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.84%EV -11.33%E -7.45%K -21.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -3.34%E -0.145%K -0.152%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-24 05:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -9.58%E -6.18%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -10.10%E -4.21%K -7.21%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -15.94%E -0.797%K -0.839%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-24 04:10
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.37%EV -5.49%E -3.39%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -2.61%E -1.00%K -1.63%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -24.35%E -1.35%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 05:30
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.37%EV -5.49%E -3.39%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -2.61%E -1.00%K -1.63%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -24.35%E -1.35%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-05-24 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%3.4%2026-05-24 04:29
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%3.9%2026-05-24 05:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-05-24 05:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-05-24 05:40
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-05-24 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-05-24 06:00
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-05-24 06:00
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-05-24 06:00
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-05-24 05:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-05-24 04:40
PlayUp🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-05-24 05:40
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-05-24 05:30