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North Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 07:31 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 26–12 Penrith Panthers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 22.57%4.43fair odd
EV +3.84%
Edge +0.835%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.40%22.36%22.80%23.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.103.964.6026.67%24.38%25.25%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 74.36%1.34fair odd
EV -7.06%
Edge -5.64%
Kelly -28.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.34%74.54%74.38%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.211.221.2584.75%82.30%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.07%32.56fair odd
EV +7.48%
Edge +0.214%
Kelly +0.220%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 35.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.68%3.10%2.82%3.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
24.0029.3829.5035.004.17%3.40%3.39%2.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 22.57%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 74.36%; Draw: 3.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 32.56. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.48%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV +3.84%E +0.835%K +1.07%G +0.041%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.92%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.21%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.68%EV +7.48%E +0.214%K +0.220%G +0.016%6.6%2026-06-27 07:30
NordicBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV +3.84%E +0.835%K +1.07%G +0.041%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.92%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.21%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.68%EV +7.48%E +0.214%K +0.220%G +0.016%6.6%2026-06-27 07:30
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.98%EV -10.77%E -8.98%K -53.87%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -23.23%E -0.929%K -0.968%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-27 07:29
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -9.70%E -2.43%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.21%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.35%EV -17.09%E -0.633%K -0.657%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-27 07:29
Marathon Bet🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 23.50%EV -11.51%E -2.94%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.71%EV -7.06%E -5.64%K -28.22%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +1.34%E +0.041%K +0.042%G +0.001%8.5%2026-06-27 07:29
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.49%EV -10.03%E -8.29%K -47.76%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.71%EV -26.30%E -1.10%K -1.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-27 07:29
NetBet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.61%EV -13.09%E -3.40%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 73.76%EV -12.26%E -10.39%K -68.11%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.63%EV -26.30%E -1.10%K -1.14%G +0.000%14.9%2026-06-27 07:29
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.86%EV -15.35%E -4.09%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.34%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.21%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.80%EV -1.73%E -0.054%K -0.056%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-27 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%1.3%2026-06-27 07:29
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%4.7%2026-06-27 07:29
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-06-27 07:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-06-27 07:29
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-06-27 07:29
Betr (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-06-27 07:29
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%5.0%2026-06-27 07:28
TABtouch🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%5.3%2026-06-27 07:29
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%5.6%2026-06-27 07:29
BetRivers🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%5.6%2026-06-27 07:26
Dabble (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%5.6%2026-06-27 07:29
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%5.7%2026-06-27 07:29
Pinnacle🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.20%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.80%6.1%2026-06-27 07:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%6.4%2026-06-27 07:29
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%6.6%2026-06-27 07:29