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North Queensland Cowboys v Melbourne Storm
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
North Queensland Cowboys (Local)
assuming max odds 4.33
Melbourne Storm (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.32
Draw
assuming max odds 35.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 24.11%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 72.38%; Draw: 3.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.83%.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -5.96%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -9.53%E -7.62%K -38.11%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.63%EV +22.83%E +0.652%K +0.671%G +0.153% | 8.5% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.78%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.25%EV -9.53%E -7.62%K -38.11%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.34%EV -5.25%E -0.194%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.21%EV +4.41%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.058% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.26%EV -11.70%E -9.59%K -53.18%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -8.75%E -0.337%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-24 10:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.21%EV +4.41%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.058% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.26%EV -11.70%E -9.59%K -53.18%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -8.75%E -0.337%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-24 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -13.19%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.67%EV -9.53%E -7.62%K -38.11%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.45%EV -8.75%E -0.337%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.42%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -12.26%E -0.491%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 00:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -8.37%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.42%EV -4.46%E -3.38%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV -12.26%E -0.491%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 00:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -3.55%E -0.887%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -11.70%E -9.59%K -53.18%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -12.26%E -0.491%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-27 17:28 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -9.58%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.32%EV -14.59%E -12.37%K -81.08%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.61%EV -15.77%E -0.657%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-03-28 02:13 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66% | 3.8% | 2026-03-28 00:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44% | 4.4% | 2026-03-28 02:45 |
| Bet365 (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81% | 4.9% | 2026-03-25 00:46 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19% | 5.0% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58% | 5.0% | 2026-03-28 02:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 23:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35% | 5.1% | 2026-03-24 05:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35% | 5.1% | 2026-03-24 04:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70% | 5.5% | 2026-03-27 02:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70% | 5.5% | 2026-03-27 02:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.54% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.46% | 5.5% | 2026-03-28 01:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 07:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 07:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49% | 6.0% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |