The School of Odds
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North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 09:50 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 6–38 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 57.32%1.74fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -5.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.21%57.36%57.32%58.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.591.6865.36%62.63%62.89%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 38.51%2.60fair odd
EV -5.65%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -3.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.48%38.47%38.51%39.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.372.4545.45%42.35%42.19%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.17%23.98fair odd
EV +25.13%
Edge +0.838%
Kelly +0.866%
Growth +0.218%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%4.17%4.17%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.5621.0030.005.56%4.64%4.76%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 57.32%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 38.51%; Draw: 4.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.13%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.91%EV -8.86%E -5.57%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.02%EV -9.12%E -3.86%K -6.70%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +25.13%E +0.838%K +0.866%G +0.218%8.6%2026-04-16 09:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.75%EV -10.58%E -6.78%K -18.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.33%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.04%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -4.07%E -0.177%K -0.185%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-16 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.27%EV -10.58%E -6.78%K -18.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -11.43%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.88%EV -4.07%E -0.177%K -0.185%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-16 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.95%EV -7.72%E -4.79%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.69%EV -8.73%E -3.68%K -6.37%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -12.41%E -0.591%K -0.621%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-14 07:25
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.95%EV -7.72%E -4.79%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.69%EV -8.73%E -3.68%K -6.37%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -12.41%E -0.591%K -0.621%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-14 07:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -11.16%E -7.20%K -20.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -7.57%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -16.58%E -0.829%K -0.873%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-14 02:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.43%EV -12.30%E -8.04%K -23.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.25%EV -15.28%E -6.94%K -12.73%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.32%EV -16.58%E -0.829%K -0.873%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-16 09:45
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.21%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -24.92%E -1.38%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 09:40
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.21%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -24.92%E -1.38%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00%0.2%2026-04-16 09:45
Matchbook◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%2.7%2026-04-16 09:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%3.2%2026-04-16 08:55
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%3.9%2026-04-16 09:45
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%4.3%2026-04-16 09:45
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-16 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-16 08:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-04-16 08:00
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%5.1%2026-04-16 09:25
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 08:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:30
PlayUp🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-04-16 09:05
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-04-16 09:05
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-04-16 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-04-16 09:45