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North Queensland Cowboys v Gold Coast Titans

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 07:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 57.73%1.73fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -7.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.25%57.94%57.73%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.581.6566.67%63.34%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 38.58%2.59fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%38.17%38.58%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.402.5044.44%42.06%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.68%27.14fair odd
EV +14.23%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.474%
Growth +0.068%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.88%3.68%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.0023.0031.005.56%4.35%4.35%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 57.73%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 38.58%; Draw: 3.68%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.23%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.87%EV -8.21%E -5.16%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.16%EV -9.33%E -3.97%K -6.91%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +14.23%E +0.459%K +0.474%G +0.068%8.7%2026-03-22 06:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -13.40%E -8.94%K -26.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -7.88%E -0.315%K -0.328%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-17 05:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.25%EV -7.63%E -4.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -13.18%E -5.86%K -10.55%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.75%EV -11.56%E -0.482%K -0.503%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 06:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.56%EV -8.79%E -5.56%K -15.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -13.18%E -5.86%K -10.55%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.72%EV -11.56%E -0.482%K -0.503%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 06:29
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.06%EV -9.36%E -5.96%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -7.40%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%EV -15.25%E -0.663%K -0.693%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 07:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.06%EV -9.36%E -5.96%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -7.40%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%EV -15.25%E -0.663%K -0.693%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 07:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.53%EV -13.40%E -8.94%K -26.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -13.18%E -5.86%K -10.55%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.11%EV -22.62%E -1.08%K -1.13%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-22 06:08
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -4.74%E -2.88%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -33.67%E -1.87%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 06:49
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -4.74%E -2.88%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -3.54%E -1.42%K -2.36%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -33.67%E -1.87%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 06:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-03-22 06:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%3.1%2026-03-21 22:50
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%4.2%2026-03-22 06:09
PlayUp🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%4.3%2026-03-22 06:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%4.8%2026-03-22 06:29
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 21:59
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 22:00
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 21:59
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-21 22:00
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-22 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-03-22 06:00
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-22 06:36
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-22 05:54
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-22 05:54
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%5.1%2026-03-22 06:00
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-03-22 05:59
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%5.7%2026-03-21 22:00
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%5.7%2026-03-21 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-03-16 02:54