The School of Odds
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North Queensland Cowboys v Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 07:31 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 14–40 Dolphins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 35.47%2.82fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.37%35.65%35.47%38.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.552.602.7042.55%39.16%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 60.35%1.66fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.06%60.32%60.35%62.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.521.521.5868.97%65.72%66.01%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.18%23.91fair odd
EV +42.21%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.540%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.65%4.04%4.18%4.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0024.5021.5034.005.00%4.08%4.65%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 35.47%; Dolphins (Visit): 60.35%; Draw: 4.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.91. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +42.21%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.81%EV -13.10%E -5.35%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.53%EV -10.08%E -6.77%K -20.58%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.65%EV +42.21%E +1.24%K +1.28%G +0.540%10.9%2026-06-06 07:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -7.07%E -2.70%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.79%EV -10.08%E -6.77%K -20.58%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +25.48%E +0.849%K +0.879%G +0.224%8.6%2026-06-06 07:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -16.64%E -7.08%K -12.33%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.06%EV -7.07%E -4.59%K -13.09%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -3.80%E -0.165%K -0.173%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-06 07:29
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.78%E -2.99%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.29%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -16.35%E -0.817%K -0.860%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-06 07:29
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.78%E -2.99%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.29%EV -4.65%E -2.94%K -8.02%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -16.35%E -0.817%K -0.860%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-06 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -4.23%E -1.57%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -12.50%E -8.62%K -27.77%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -16.35%E -0.817%K -0.860%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-06 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-06-06 07:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%3.2%2026-06-06 07:29
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%4.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-06-06 07:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Dabble (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
SportsBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%5.1%2026-06-06 07:29
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-06-06 07:29
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%6.3%2026-06-06 07:27
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%6.3%2026-06-06 07:29
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%6.8%2026-06-06 07:29