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North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 46.23%2.16fair odd
EV -7.54%
Edge -3.77%
Kelly -7.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.23%46.29%46.23%47.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.972.002.0054.64%50.85%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 49.39%2.02fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%49.25%49.39%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.851.831.9856.18%53.96%54.64%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.37%22.86fair odd
EV +4.99%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.83%4.46%4.37%5.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.4421.0024.005.56%4.89%4.76%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 46.23%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 49.39%; Draw: 4.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 24.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.99%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.70%EV -8.92%E -4.53%K -9.20%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.46%EV -8.13%E -4.37%K -9.45%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.83%EV +4.99%E +0.208%K +0.217%G +0.011%8.7%2026-04-24 00:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.17%EV -9.39%E -4.79%K -9.78%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -10.10%E -5.55%K -12.32%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.11%EV -3.76%E -0.171%K -0.179%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 01:39
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV -8.13%E -0.387%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 07:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV -8.13%E -0.387%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 08:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.08%EV -10.31%E -5.31%K -10.97%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.66%EV -11.09%E -6.16%K -13.86%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.26%EV -8.13%E -0.387%K -0.407%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-24 01:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.23%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -11.09%E -6.16%K -13.86%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -12.51%E -0.625%K -0.658%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-21 09:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.07%EV -15.40%E -8.41%K -18.55%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.39%EV -12.08%E -6.79%K -15.49%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -16.88%E -0.888%K -0.938%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-23 12:14
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -2.20%E -1.11%K -2.25%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -21.26%E -1.18%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-24 02:50
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -2.20%E -1.11%K -2.25%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -21.26%E -1.18%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-24 02:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%0.3%2026-04-24 03:45
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%4.2%2026-04-24 02:49
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%4.5%2026-04-24 01:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-04-24 03:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-21 09:50
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-21 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:14
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:15
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:14
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-04-24 01:14
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-24 02:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-22 11:19
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-24 02:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-23 08:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-23 11:30
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-04-23 22:59
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%5.8%2026-04-24 01:15
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%5.8%2026-04-24 01:14