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North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 07:30 UTC

Final: North Queensland Cowboys 30–50 Canberra Raiders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 59.77%1.67fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -7.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.84%59.80%59.67%61.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.501.6068.97%66.06%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 36.27%2.76fair odd
EV -7.52%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.96%36.20%36.37%37.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.482.502.5541.67%40.30%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.96%25.22fair odd
EV +22.90%
Edge +0.739%
Kelly +0.763%
Growth +0.175%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%4.01%3.97%5.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.2521.5031.005.56%4.49%4.65%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Queensland Cowboys (Local): 59.77%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 36.27%; Draw: 3.96%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.90%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.19%EV -8.55%E -5.59%K -16.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.33%E -3.73%K -6.22%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +22.90%E +0.739%K +0.763%G +0.175%8.6%2026-09-02 23:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.48%EV -13.34%E -9.20%K -29.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.96%EV -7.52%E -2.95%K -4.85%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.57%EV -0.891%E -0.036%K -0.037%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 06:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.05%EV -10.35%E -6.90%K -20.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.03%EV -9.33%E -3.73%K -6.22%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -8.82%E -0.383%K -0.401%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 07:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.38%EV -11.54%E -7.80%K -24.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -12.96%E -5.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.99%EV -12.78%E -0.581%K -0.609%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-04 08:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.39%EV -10.35%E -6.90%K -20.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -11.14%E -4.55%K -7.69%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.24%EV -16.75%E -0.798%K -0.837%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 08:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.08%EV -13.34%E -9.20%K -29.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.56%EV -11.14%E -4.55%K -7.69%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.36%EV -20.71%E -1.04%K -1.09%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-04 03:28
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -4.37%E -2.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -9.33%E -3.73%K -6.22%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -28.64%E -1.59%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-03 07:25
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -4.37%E -2.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -9.33%E -3.73%K -6.22%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -28.64%E -1.59%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-03 07:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%1.5%2026-09-04 13:00
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-09-04 09:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-09-03 07:25
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-09-01 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-09-01 07:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-09-01 06:20
TAB🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-09-04 07:29
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-09-03 09:55
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%5.4%2026-09-03 07:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-02 03:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-02 03:45
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-02 03:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-02 03:45
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-02 03:45
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-09-02 03:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%6.0%2026-09-03 22:14
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%6.2%2026-09-02 03:45
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-09-02 03:45
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%8.2%2026-09-01 09:50