North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

2026-07-25 09:35 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

57%

40%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

North Queensland Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 56.53%1.77fair odd

EV -7.86%

Edge -4.82%

Kelly -12.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.23%56.53%56.53%56.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.541.591.591.6365%63%63%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 40.06%2.50fair odd

EV -7.86%

Edge -3.42%

Kelly -6.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.06%40.06%40.06%41.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.052.162.152.3049%46%47%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.41%29.30fair odd

EV -1.04%

Edge -0.036%

Kelly -0.037%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.12%3.41%3.41%3.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

25.0026.7526.5029.004%4%4%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -7.86%E -4.82%K -12.48%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -7.86%E -3.42%K -6.05%G +0.000%	27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV -7.86%E -0.291%K -0.302%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-15 03:14
Winamax (DE)	1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.43%E -5.20%K -13.59%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.09%EV -11.87%E -5.39%K -9.89%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.12%EV -1.04%E -0.036%K -0.037%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-07-15 02:59
Unibet (FR)	1.56I 64.10%NM 55.39%EV -11.82%E -7.58%K -21.10%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 41.15%EV -15.87%E -7.56%K -14.43%G +0.000%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.46%EV -14.69%E -0.587%K -0.612%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-15 02:59
Winamax (FR)	1.54I 64.94%NM 55.23%EV -12.95%E -8.41%K -23.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 41.49%EV -17.88%E -8.72%K -17.02%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.27%EV -11.27%E -0.434%K -0.451%G +0.000%	17.6%	2026-07-15 02:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%	4.8%	2026-07-15 02:59