The School of Odds
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Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 06:07 UTC

Final: Newcastle Knights 12–6 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 67.33%1.49fair odd
EV -0.349%
Edge -0.236%
Kelly -0.727%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.47%67.12%67.16%69.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.351.331.4878.74%73.94%74.91%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -0.868%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%28.91%29.09%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.123.4033.90%32.01%32.05%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.87%25.85fair odd
EV +19.94%
Edge +0.643%
Kelly +0.665%
Growth +0.133%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.97%3.76%5.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.7524.0031.005.56%4.21%4.17%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 67.33%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 28.80%; Draw: 3.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.85. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.94%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -8.43%E -6.20%K -23.41%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.32%EV -9.57%E -3.05%K -4.47%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +19.94%E +0.643%K +0.665%G +0.133%8.6%2026-06-28 05:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.48%EV -9.78%E -7.30%K -28.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.35%EV +4.46%E +0.165%K +0.172%G +0.008%10.6%2026-06-27 12:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.75%EV -11.12%E -8.43%K -34.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV -15.04%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.39%EV +0.593%E +0.023%K +0.024%G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-27 12:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.15%EV -10.45%E -7.86%K -31.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.57%EV -3.28%E -0.131%K -0.136%G +0.000%12.0%2026-06-27 13:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.57%EV -14.49%E -11.41%K -53.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.65%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.79%EV -11.01%E -0.479%K -0.501%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-28 05:59
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.02%EV -4.39%E -3.09%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -22.62%E -1.13%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-28 05:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.09%EV -12.47%E -9.59%K -41.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -22.62%E -1.13%K -1.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-28 06:00
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -0.349%E -0.236%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -30.36%E -1.69%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-27 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-06-28 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%4.0%2026-06-28 05:09
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.25%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.75%4.7%2026-06-28 06:00
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%4.8%2026-06-28 05:59
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-06-28 05:59
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.09%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.91%5.1%2026-06-28 06:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-27 22:50
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 05:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 02:19
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-06-27 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-06-27 11:29
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-06-28 05:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%6.3%2026-06-28 04:49
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-06-27 11:30
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%6.4%2026-06-28 05:59