Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters

2026-07-24 08:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

43%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 43.44%2.30fair odd

EV -6.60%

Edge -3.07%

Kelly -5.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.18%43.44%43.44%43.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.982.082.102.1551%48%48%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 52.13%1.92fair odd

EV -6.16%

Edge -3.42%

Kelly -7.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.62%52.13%52.13%53.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.621.721.731.8062%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 4.42%22.61fair odd

EV +15.02%

Edge +0.578%

Kelly +0.601%

Growth +0.090%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.49%4.42%4.42%5.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

18.0022.0022.5026.006%5%4%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Winamax (DE)	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.18%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.98%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 53.34%EV -11.37%E -6.69%K -16.24%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.49%EV +15.02%E +0.578%K +0.601%G +0.090%	10.3%	2026-07-15 02:54
Marathon Bet	2.11I 47.39%NM 43.67%EV -8.34%E -3.95%K -7.51%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.65%EV -8.76%E -5.01%K -11.69%G +0.000%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +10.59%E +0.424%K +0.441%G +0.047%	8.5%	2026-07-15 05:35
Winamax (FR)	1.98I 50.51%NM 43.32%EV -13.99%E -7.06%K -14.27%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 52.95%EV -15.54%E -9.59%K -25.07%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.73%EV +1.75%E +0.076%K +0.079%G +0.001%	16.6%	2026-07-15 02:55
Unibet (FR)	1.99I 50.25%NM 43.27%EV -13.55%E -6.81%K -13.69%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 52.82%EV -15.02%E -9.22%K -23.84%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 3.91%EV -2.68%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%	16.1%	2026-07-15 02:54
NordicBet	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.62%EV -6.16%E -3.42%K -7.70%G +0.000%	18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -20.37%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-15 05:40
Betsson	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.62%EV -6.16%E -3.42%K -7.70%G +0.000%	18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -20.37%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-15 05:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%	5.0%	2026-07-15 03:45