The School of Odds
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Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-06-19 10:01 UTC

Final: Newcastle Knights 22–20 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 72.51%1.38fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -13.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.26%72.48%72.78%73.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.261.3283.33%79.28%79.37%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 23.59%4.24fair odd
EV -5.64%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.53%23.60%23.60%24.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.853.804.0027.03%25.95%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.90%25.64fair odd
EV +32.59%
Edge +0.958%
Kelly +0.987%
Growth +0.322%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.66%3.92%3.62%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.8625.0034.005.56%4.02%4.00%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 72.51%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 23.59%; Draw: 3.90%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.64. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.59%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.53%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.30%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.76%EV -12.25%E -3.29%K -4.50%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +32.59%E +0.958%K +0.987%G +0.322%8.6%2026-06-19 09:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.91%EV -10.09%E -8.13%K -42.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.66%EV +32.59%E +0.958%K +0.987%G +0.322%10.6%2026-06-19 10:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.23%EV -8.64%E -6.85%K -33.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -11.54%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%EV +1.39%E +0.053%K +0.056%G +0.001%9.9%2026-06-19 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -11.54%E -9.46%K -52.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -5.64%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -2.51%E -0.100%K -0.105%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-19 10:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.52%EV -12.99%E -10.82%K -64.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.90%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.58%EV -25.91%E -1.36%K -1.44%G +0.000%14.9%2026-06-19 09:58
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.26%EV -4.29%E -3.25%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.64%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -29.81%E -1.66%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 10:00
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.26%EV -4.29%E -3.25%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.64%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -29.81%E -1.66%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-19 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 75.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95%0.2%2026-06-19 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.46%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.54%4.1%2026-06-19 10:00
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.70%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.30%4.6%2026-06-19 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
LeoVegas🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%5.0%2026-06-19 10:00
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%5.1%2026-06-19 09:59
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-06-19 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-06-19 10:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%5.3%2026-06-19 09:59
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-19 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-19 10:00
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-19 10:00
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%6.3%2026-06-19 10:00
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%6.3%2026-06-19 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%6.3%2026-06-19 09:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%6.3%2026-06-19 10:00