The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Newcastle Knights v New Zealand Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 04:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 31.62%3.16fair odd
EV +4.33%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.50%30.96%31.62%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.853.3037.04%34.27%35.09%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 65.15%1.53fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -4.29%
Kelly -14.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.81%65.61%65.15%68.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.381.4474.63%71.66%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.23%30.96fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.108%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.44%3.23%4.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0026.2228.0032.005.00%3.81%3.57%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 31.62%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 65.15%; Draw: 3.23%. For Newcastle Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.33%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV +4.33%E +1.31%K +1.88%G +0.082%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.14%EV -10.09%E -7.31%K -26.55%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.36%EV -9.57%E -0.342%K -0.354%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 04:00
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV +4.33%E +1.31%K +1.88%G +0.082%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.14%EV -10.09%E -7.31%K -26.55%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.36%EV -9.57%E -0.342%K -0.354%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 04:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -8.31%E -2.87%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.40%EV -8.78%E -6.27%K -21.96%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -35.40%E -1.77%K -1.86%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-21 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.31%EV -9.58%E -3.35%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.61%EV -6.83%E -4.78%K -15.88%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.08%EV -3.11%E -0.104%K -0.107%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 03:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -9.89%E -3.47%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -10.09%E -7.31%K -26.55%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +3.35%E +0.105%K +0.108%G +0.004%10.7%2026-03-21 04:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -11.47%E -4.10%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.18%E -4.29%K -14.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -32.18%E -1.53%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 03:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -11.47%E -4.10%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 65.27%EV -10.74%E -7.84%K -29.02%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.79%EV +3.35%E +0.105%K +0.108%G +0.004%11.8%2026-03-21 04:00
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.89%EV -13.06%E -4.75%K -7.46%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.81%EV -6.18%E -4.29%K -14.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%EV -32.18%E -1.53%K -1.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-21 04:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -14.64%E -5.42%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 64.43%EV -12.69%E -9.47%K -37.33%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.60%EV -22.49%E -0.937%K -0.978%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-21 03:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%0.9%2026-03-21 04:00
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%4.3%2026-03-21 03:59
PlayUp🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%4.3%2026-03-21 04:00
Bet365 (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-03-21 03:59
SportsBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%4.9%2026-03-21 04:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-03-21 04:00
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-03-21 03:59
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%5.3%2026-03-21 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%5.3%2026-03-21 03:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%5.3%2026-03-21 03:59
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%5.5%2026-03-21 03:59
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 04:00
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 04:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 04:00
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 04:00
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%5.6%2026-03-21 03:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.35%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.65%5.9%2026-03-21 03:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%6.1%2026-03-21 04:00
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%6.3%2026-03-21 03:57
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%6.3%2026-03-21 04:00