Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans

2026-08-16 04:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

67%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 66.74%1.50fair odd

EV -7.91%

Edge -5.73%

Kelly -20.80%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.74%66.74%66.74%68.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.321.311.3878.13%75.90%76.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 30.29%3.30fair odd

EV -1.54%

Edge -0.475%

Kelly -0.686%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.80%30.29%30.29%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.953.063.023.2533.90%32.68%33.11%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.97%33.66fair odd

EV -7.91%

Edge -0.255%

Kelly -0.264%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.97%2.97%2.97%4.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

20.0024.0022.5031.005.00%4.17%4.44%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Newcastle Knights (Local): 66.74%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 30.29%; Draw: 2.97%. For Gold Coast Titans (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -1.54%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.74%EV -7.91%E -5.73%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.04I 32.89%NM 30.29%EV -7.91%E -2.60%K -3.88%G +0.000%	31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV -7.91%E -0.255%K -0.264%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-06 07:30
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 68.44%EV -11.91%E -9.02%K -37.22%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -1.54%E -0.475%K -0.686%G +0.000%	24.00I 4.17%NM 3.76%EV -28.70%E -1.20%K -1.25%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-08-06 07:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 66.91%EV -13.91%E -10.78%K -47.97%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.77%EV -9.12%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.32%EV -40.58%E -2.03%K -2.14%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-08-06 07:30
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 66.90%EV -14.58%E -11.39%K -52.07%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.03%EV -10.63%E -3.60%K -5.45%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.08%EV -37.61%E -1.79%K -1.88%G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-08-06 07:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%	4.9%	2026-08-06 01:39