The School of Odds
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Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 04:02 UTC

Final: Newcastle Knights 36–26 Gold Coast Titans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 72.27%1.38fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -4.66%
Kelly -20.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.39%72.36%72.27%74.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.231.3081.97%80.16%81.63%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV +2.13%
Edge +0.508%
Kelly +0.667%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.77%24.28%24.32%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.743.664.2029.85%26.74%27.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.41%29.29fair odd
EV +9.27%
Edge +0.290%
Kelly +0.299%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.82%3.35%3.41%3.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0026.7526.5032.004.55%3.74%3.77%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 72.27%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 24.32%; Draw: 3.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.27%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.41%EV -11.11%E -9.03%K -48.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -7.59%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +9.27%E +0.290%K +0.299%G +0.028%10.7%2026-08-16 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.86%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.17%EV -14.40%E -4.09%K -5.72%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +5.86%E +0.189%K +0.195%G +0.011%8.6%2026-08-16 03:58
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.96%EV -11.83%E -9.70%K -53.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV +2.13%E +0.508%K +0.667%G +0.014%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.27%EV -4.39%E -0.157%K -0.163%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 04:00
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.96%EV -11.83%E -9.70%K -53.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV +2.13%E +0.508%K +0.667%G +0.014%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.27%EV -4.39%E -0.157%K -0.163%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 03:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -11.83%E -9.70%K -53.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -2.73%E -0.683%K -0.910%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -14.63%E -0.585%K -0.610%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-15 11:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.77%EV -7.50%E -5.86%K -26.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -18.54%E -5.53%K -7.89%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.57%EV -14.63%E -0.585%K -0.610%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-16 03:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.39%EV -6.77%E -5.25%K -23.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -18.54%E -5.53%K -7.89%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -21.46%E -0.933%K -0.976%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 03:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.22%EV -11.83%E -9.70%K -53.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -14.89%E -4.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.95%EV -24.88%E -1.13%K -1.18%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-16 03:57
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-16 04:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%3.8%2026-08-16 03:59
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.10%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.90%4.6%2026-08-16 03:55
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-08-16 03:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-08-16 03:55
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-08-16 03:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%5.1%2026-08-16 03:44
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%5.1%2026-08-16 03:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-16 03:54
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-16 03:54
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-16 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-16 03:54
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-16 02:50
TAB🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-08-16 03:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-08-16 03:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%5.5%2026-08-11 08:04
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-16 03:54
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-16 03:54
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%7.1%2026-08-16 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%8.8%2026-08-16 03:59