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Newcastle Knights v Dolphins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights (Local)
assuming max odds 2.02
Dolphins (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.90
Draw
assuming max odds 26.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 46.00%; Dolphins (Visit): 50.33%; Draw: 3.68%. For Dolphins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.90, with an expected value of -4.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.60%EV -7.08%E -3.51%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.79%EV -6.90%E -3.73%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -26.49%E -1.32%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-05 06:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.89%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.36%EV -4.38%E -2.31%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -8.12%E -0.325%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.89%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.36%EV -4.38%E -2.31%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV -8.12%E -0.325%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -7.90%E -4.32%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV -4.44%E -0.171%K -0.178%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-05 06:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.23%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -9.41%E -5.23%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -26.49%E -1.32%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-05 06:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -9.84%E -5.02%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.52%EV -10.42%E -5.85%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -8.12%E -0.325%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -9.84%E -5.02%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.52%EV -10.42%E -5.85%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -8.12%E -0.325%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.75%EV -10.30%E -5.28%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.56%EV -9.41%E -5.23%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.70%EV -30.17%E -1.59%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-05 06:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.02%EV -13.52%E -7.19%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 48.89%EV -10.92%E -6.17%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.09%EV -37.52%E -2.21%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 06:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78% | 4.2% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25% | 4.3% | 2026-07-05 06:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92% | 5.0% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92% | 5.0% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 06:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 06:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13% | 6.6% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00% | 6.8% | 2026-07-05 06:05 |