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New Zealand Warriors v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 07:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 37.48%2.67fair odd
EV +3.07%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.75%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.68%37.71%37.66%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.592.552.7540.82%38.62%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 62.52%1.60fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.95%62.29%62.34%65.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.501.511.5768.49%66.56%66.23%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 37.48%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 62.52%. For New Zealand Warriors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.07%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV +3.07%E +1.12%K +1.75%G +0.054%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -8.72%E -5.97%K -18.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 07:00
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV +3.07%E +1.12%K +1.75%G +0.054%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -8.72%E -5.97%K -18.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 07:00
Dabble (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV +3.07%E +1.12%K +1.75%G +0.054%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -8.72%E -5.97%K -18.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 06:59
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +1.19%E +0.442%K +0.702%G +0.008%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -7.47%E -5.05%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 07:00
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.680%E -0.257%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.22%E -4.15%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 07:00
TAB🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.680%E -0.257%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.47%E -5.05%K -15.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.55%E -0.982%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.22%E -4.15%K -12.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 07:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 07:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.22%E -4.15%K -12.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-06 07:00
Bet365 (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.43%E -1.74%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.22%E -4.15%K -12.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-06 06:57
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.80%E -1.89%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.72%E -2.41%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-06 06:59
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.30%E -2.52%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.97%E -3.27%K -9.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 07:00
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.30%E -2.52%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.59%E -3.70%K -10.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 06:58
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -8.18%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -1.84%E -1.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-06 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%0.9%2026-03-06 07:00
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 40.90%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.10%9.2%2026-03-06 06:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%7.0%2026-03-06 07:00
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.49%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.27%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.23%7.4%2026-03-06 07:00
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.59%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%7.9%2026-03-06 07:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%8.6%2026-03-06 06:59
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.0%2026-03-06 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%9.6%2026-03-06 07:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.58%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.30%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.13%10.2%2026-03-06 07:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.37%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.12%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%10.9%2026-03-06 07:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.96%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.20%11.6%2026-03-06 07:00