Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

2026-08-07 08:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

37%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 37.06%2.70fair odd

EV -7.73%

Edge -3.11%

Kelly -5.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.06%37.06%37.06%38.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.362.352.4944.44%42.37%42.55%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 59.53%1.68fair odd

EV -7.73%

Edge -4.99%

Kelly -14.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.86%59.53%59.53%59.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.511.521.5567.57%66.01%66.01%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.42%29.26fair odd

EV -7.73%

Edge -0.286%

Kelly -0.297%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.42%3.42%3.42%4.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

20.0022.7522.0027.005.00%4.40%4.55%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	2.49I 40.16%NM 37.06%EV -7.73%E -3.11%K -5.19%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -7.73%E -4.99%K -14.06%G +0.000%	27.00I 3.70%NM 3.42%EV -7.73%E -0.286%K -0.297%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-07-29 05:24
Winamax (DE)	2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -11.07%E -4.61%K -7.91%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 58.53%EV -8.33%E -5.41%K -15.42%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -21.40%E -0.931%K -0.973%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-07-29 07:10
Unibet (FR)	2.30I 43.48%NM 37.61%EV -14.77%E -6.42%K -11.36%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 58.06%EV -11.30%E -7.59%K -23.07%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.33%EV -31.65%E -1.58%K -1.67%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-07-29 07:05
Winamax (FR)	2.25I 44.44%NM 38.06%EV -16.63%E -7.39%K -13.30%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 57.86%EV -11.90%E -8.04%K -24.79%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.08%EV -28.24%E -1.34%K -1.41%G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-07-29 07:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%	5.0%	2026-07-29 05:19