The School of Odds
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New Zealand Warriors v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 04:01 UTC

Final: New Zealand Warriors 38–20 North Queensland Cowboys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 64.61%1.55fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -9.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.03%64.46%64.61%66.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.421.4874.07%70.85%70.42%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 31.98%3.13fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.726%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.42%31.80%31.98%33.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.882.863.2037.74%34.77%34.97%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.42%29.26fair odd
EV +5.94%
Edge +0.192%
Kelly +0.198%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.74%3.42%5.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.8625.0031.005.56%4.02%4.00%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 64.61%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 31.98%; Draw: 3.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.94%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.30%EV -8.26%E -5.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV +2.32%E +0.726%K +1.06%G +0.025%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -24.82%E -1.13%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-21 03:59
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.38%E -2.96%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -4.07%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -38.49%E -2.14%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-21 03:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.49%EV -12.78%E -9.47%K -36.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -4.07%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -14.56%E -0.583%K -0.607%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-21 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.84%EV -8.26%E -5.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.19%EV -8.55%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +5.94%E +0.192%K +0.198%G +0.012%8.6%2026-06-21 03:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.91%EV -12.14%E -8.92%K -33.71%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.95%EV -13.03%E -4.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -28.23%E -1.34%K -1.41%G +0.000%15.1%2026-06-21 03:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.33%EV -7.61%E -5.32%K -17.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -13.66%E -5.06%K -8.04%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.12%EV -0.895%E -0.031%K -0.032%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-21 03:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.03%EV -8.26%E -5.82%K -19.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.77%EV -15.26%E -5.76%K -9.25%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.20%EV -4.31%E -0.154%K -0.160%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-21 04:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-06-21 04:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%4.2%2026-06-21 04:00
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%4.3%2026-06-21 03:59
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%4.5%2026-06-21 04:00
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.95%5.0%2026-06-21 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-06-21 03:59
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-06-21 03:59
PlayUp🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-06-21 04:00
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-06-21 03:59
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-06-21 03:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-06-21 04:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-06-21 03:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 04:00
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 03:56
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 03:59
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 03:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 03:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 03:59
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-06-21 04:00
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%7.0%2026-06-21 03:59