The School of Odds
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New Zealand Warriors v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 05:00 UTC

Final: New Zealand Warriors 31–30 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 69.78%1.43fair odd
EV -7.89%
Edge -5.98%
Kelly -24.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.16%69.95%69.78%71.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.281.3281.97%78.51%78.13%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 26.54%3.77fair odd
EV +0.863%
Edge +0.227%
Kelly +0.308%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%26.20%26.54%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.483.8030.30%28.31%28.74%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.68%27.17fair odd
EV +17.78%
Edge +0.556%
Kelly +0.573%
Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%3.84%3.68%5.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.2523.0032.005.56%4.30%4.35%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 69.78%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 26.54%; Draw: 3.68%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.78%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.73%EV -7.89%E -5.98%K -24.67%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.39%EV -10.82%E -3.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +17.78%E +0.556%K +0.573%G +0.102%8.6%2026-09-03 23:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.89%EV -12.08%E -9.59%K -46.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -1.79%E -0.484%K -0.664%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -7.99%E -0.319%K -0.333%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.16%EV -9.29%E -7.15%K -30.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.41%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -7.99%E -0.319%K -0.333%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 06:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.35%EV -12.78%E -10.22%K -51.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -4.45%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.88%EV -15.35%E -0.667%K -0.698%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 05:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.22%EV -13.48%E -10.87%K -56.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.99%EV -11.08%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.79%EV -15.35%E -0.667%K -0.698%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-04 07:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.44%EV -14.87%E -12.19%K -67.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%EV -11.08%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.91%EV -19.03%E -0.865%K -0.906%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-03 13:00
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.70%EV -9.29%E -7.15%K -30.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +0.863%E +0.227%K +0.308%G +0.003%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.11%EV -33.75%E -1.87%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 05:15
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.70%EV -9.29%E -7.15%K -30.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +0.863%E +0.227%K +0.308%G +0.003%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.11%EV -33.75%E -1.87%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 05:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-09-04 14:35
TAB🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%4.7%2026-09-04 08:05
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-09-04 05:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-09-04 05:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-09-04 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-09-04 05:40
Bet Right🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-09-04 09:50
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-09-04 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-09-04 06:45
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-09-04 06:45
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.93%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.07%5.2%2026-09-04 06:50
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-09-04 06:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-09-04 05:19
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%5.4%2026-09-04 12:20
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%5.4%2026-09-04 12:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-09-04 05:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%6.1%2026-09-02 01:05
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%6.4%2026-09-04 05:40
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.45%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.55%9.8%2026-09-04 14:10