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New Zealand Warriors v Gold Coast Titans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New Zealand Warriors (Local)
assuming max odds 1.32
Gold Coast Titans (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.80
Draw
assuming max odds 32.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 70.64%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 25.76%; Draw: 3.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.73. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.40%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.82%EV -8.17%E -6.29%K -27.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +15.40%E +0.481%K +0.497%G +0.076% | 8.6% | 2026-04-13 01:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.03%EV -10.29%E -8.10%K -38.12%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -11.13%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +15.40%E +0.481%K +0.497%G +0.076% | 10.9% | 2026-04-18 05:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.41%EV -8.88%E -6.88%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -9.85%E -0.394%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 05:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.74%EV -10.29%E -8.10%K -38.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -9.85%E -0.394%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-14 02:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.03%EV -8.17%E -6.29%K -27.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%EV -17.06%E -0.742%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-16 09:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.03%EV -8.17%E -6.29%K -27.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%EV -17.06%E -0.742%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-16 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.76%E -5.12%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -2.12%E -0.558%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.26%EV -20.66%E -0.939%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-18 04:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.76%E -5.12%K -21.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -2.12%E -0.558%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.26%EV -20.66%E -0.939%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-18 04:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.84%EV -13.82%E -11.33%K -62.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.05%EV -11.13%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.12%EV -24.27%E -1.16%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-18 04:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 05:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14% | 3.8% | 2026-04-18 04:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.42% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.58% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 04:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 03:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 03:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 04:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 04:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 23:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 08:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 07:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 08:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 07:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 07:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 08:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 08:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 03:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 21:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 5.5% | 2026-04-14 08:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 07:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 08:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66% | 6.3% | 2026-04-14 09:55 |