The School of Odds
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New Zealand Warriors v Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 08:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 60.58%1.65fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -7.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.56%60.58%60.87%63.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.491.501.5870.92%67.02%66.89%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 35.41%2.82fair odd
EV -0.855%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.475%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%35.41%35.47%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.582.572.8043.48%38.77%38.91%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.01%24.93fair odd
EV +16.32%
Edge +0.563%
Kelly +0.583%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.17%4.01%3.65%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.6021.0029.005.56%4.63%4.76%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 60.58%; Dolphins (Visit): 35.41%; Draw: 4.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.32%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.73%EV -9.74%E -6.53%K -19.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.10%EV -7.23%E -2.76%K -4.46%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +16.32%E +0.563%K +0.583%G +0.095%8.7%2026-04-24 02:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -9.13%E -6.09%K -18.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV +0.273%E +0.011%K +0.011%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 13:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.29%EV -7.92%E -5.21%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.79%EV -13.25%E -5.41%K -9.14%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -7.75%E -0.337%K -0.352%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-24 01:14
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -12.76%E -8.86%K -29.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -0.855%E -0.305%K -0.475%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -15.77%E -0.751%K -0.789%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -12.76%E -8.86%K -29.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -0.855%E -0.305%K -0.475%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -15.77%E -0.751%K -0.789%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 08:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.95%EV -9.13%E -6.09%K -18.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -15.02%E -6.26%K -10.73%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.21%EV -15.77%E -0.751%K -0.789%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-24 01:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 61.35%EV -14.58%E -10.34%K -35.57%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.33%EV -10.77%E -4.27%K -7.09%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.33%EV -19.78%E -0.989%K -1.04%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-24 02:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 58.56%EV -11.55%E -7.91%K -25.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.17%EV -18.56%E -8.07%K -14.28%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.27%EV -19.78%E -0.989%K -1.04%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-24 01:15
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.77%EV -4.28%E -2.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -27.80%E -1.54%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-24 01:35
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.77%EV -4.28%E -2.71%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -27.80%E -1.54%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-24 01:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%1.4%2026-04-23 05:15
Bet Right🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%4.8%2026-04-23 06:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-04-24 00:59
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-04-24 01:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-04-19 06:25
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%5.1%2026-04-22 23:19
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%5.3%2026-04-23 01:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-21 07:54
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:19
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:19
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:19
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-04-23 02:19
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-24 01:04
PlayUp🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-04-24 02:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%6.0%2026-04-18 11:59
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%6.1%2026-04-23 02:19
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%6.1%2026-04-23 02:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%6.1%2026-04-24 01:05