The School of Odds
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New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-06-13 07:36 UTC

Final: New Zealand Warriors 8–10 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 66.15%1.51fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -9.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.59%66.04%66.13%66.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.381.361.4576.34%72.46%73.53%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV -7.26%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%29.92%29.81%30.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.023.003.1033.90%33.08%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.93%25.45fair odd
EV +17.87%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.616%
Growth +0.110%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.01%4.04%4.06%5.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.2922.0030.005.56%4.29%4.55%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 66.15%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 29.92%; Draw: 3.93%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.87%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.39%EV -10.03%E -7.38%K -27.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -11.75%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV +17.87%E +0.596%K +0.616%G +0.110%10.8%2026-06-13 07:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.73%EV -8.71%E -6.31%K -22.91%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.09%EV -8.46%E -2.76%K -4.10%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +13.94%E +0.481%K +0.498%G +0.069%8.6%2026-06-13 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.49%EV -10.69%E -7.92%K -30.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -1.77%E -0.071%K -0.074%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-11 01:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.00%EV -10.03%E -7.38%K -27.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.08%EV -13.56%E -0.616%K -0.646%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-13 07:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 66.38%EV -13.34%E -10.18%K -43.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.48%EV -11.75%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -17.49%E -0.833%K -0.875%G +0.000%15.0%2026-06-13 07:30
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.59%EV -4.08%E -2.81%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -29.28%E -1.63%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-13 06:50
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.59%EV -4.08%E -2.81%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -29.28%E -1.63%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-13 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-06-13 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.10%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%4.1%2026-06-13 06:50
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%4.4%2026-06-13 07:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%4.7%2026-06-13 07:20
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%4.7%2026-06-13 07:20
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-06-13 05:01
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%5.2%2026-06-13 06:10
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%5.3%2026-06-13 03:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%5.3%2026-06-13 03:40
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%5.3%2026-06-13 05:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%5.3%2026-06-13 06:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-06-13 03:20
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-06-13 07:28
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-06-13 07:30
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-06-13 07:30
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-06-13 07:30
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-06-13 07:30
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-06-13 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%6.9%2026-06-13 07:31
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-06-13 07:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%9.7%2026-06-13 07:31