The School of Odds
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New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 06:06 UTC

Final: New Zealand Warriors 42–12 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand Warriors (Local)

Prediction 53.75%1.86fair odd
EV -7.55%
Edge -4.39%
Kelly -10.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.26%53.66%53.75%54.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.701.7260.98%59.03%58.82%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 42.58%2.35fair odd
EV -6.33%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -5.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.60%42.49%42.58%43.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.152.152.2047.62%46.51%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.67%27.21fair odd
EV -0.784%
Edge -0.029%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.41%3.84%3.67%4.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
19.0023.2025.0027.005.26%4.31%4.00%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand Warriors (Local): 53.75%; Brisbane Broncos (Visit): 42.58%; Draw: 3.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 27.00, with an expected value of -0.784%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -7.55%E -4.39%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.25%EV -6.33%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%EV -8.13%E -0.325%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 06:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.80%EV -8.09%E -4.73%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.79%EV -8.46%E -3.94%K -7.36%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV -0.784%E -0.029%K -0.030%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 06:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.83%EV -8.63%E -5.07%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.60%EV -6.33%E -2.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.58%EV -26.51%E -1.33%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 06:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.26%EV -8.63%E -5.07%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.12%EV -10.59%E -5.04%K -9.63%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -8.13%E -0.325%K -0.339%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 06:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.55%EV -11.85%E -7.23%K -18.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.82%EV -10.59%E -5.04%K -9.63%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.62%EV -30.18%E -1.59%K -1.68%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-17 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%0.2%2026-05-17 06:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%3.9%2026-05-17 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%4.1%2026-05-17 06:04
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%4.7%2026-05-17 06:05
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-05-17 06:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-05-17 06:04
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-17 06:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-17 06:05
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-17 06:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-17 06:05
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-17 06:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-17 06:04
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%6.1%2026-05-17 06:03
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%6.5%2026-05-17 06:05
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%6.5%2026-05-17 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%6.5%2026-05-17 06:05
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%6.5%2026-05-17 06:05
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%7.5%2026-05-17 06:05
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%8.1%2026-05-17 06:05
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%9.7%2026-05-17 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%10.1%2026-05-17 06:05