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Melbourne Storm v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 04:00 UTC

Final: Melbourne Storm 44–16 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Storm (Local)

Prediction 67.34%1.49fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -10.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.82%67.13%67.34%69.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.341.4276.92%73.38%74.63%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 29.04%3.44fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.375%
Kelly -0.531%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.66%29.18%29.04%32.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.113.153.4035.09%32.11%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.63%27.58fair odd
EV +16.02%
Edge +0.501%
Kelly +0.517%
Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%3.69%3.63%4.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0024.1425.0032.005.00%4.14%4.00%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 67.34%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 29.04%; Draw: 3.63%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.58. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.02%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -4.38%E -3.09%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -17.24%E -6.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +16.02%E +0.501%K +0.517%G +0.083%8.6%2026-05-10 02:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.71%EV -9.77%E -7.29%K -28.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.49%EV -5.73%E -0.221%K -0.229%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 03:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.72%EV -12.46%E -9.59%K -41.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -1.27%E -0.375%K -0.531%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -9.36%E -0.374%K -0.390%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 03:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.94%EV -11.11%E -8.42%K -34.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -9.36%E -0.374%K -0.390%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 03:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.53%EV -11.11%E -8.42%K -34.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.35%EV -17.24%E -6.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.12%EV -23.86%E -1.14%K -1.19%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-10 02:55
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.02%EV -4.38%E -3.09%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -27.49%E -1.37%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 02:59
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.02%EV -4.38%E -3.09%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -27.49%E -1.37%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 02:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00%1.5%2026-05-10 03:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%3.9%2026-05-10 02:55
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.43%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.57%4.4%2026-05-10 02:49
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%4.9%2026-05-10 03:09
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-05-10 02:59
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%5.0%2026-05-10 03:09
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-05-10 03:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%5.2%2026-05-10 03:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%5.3%2026-05-10 02:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-05-10 03:05
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-05-10 03:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-05-10 02:44
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%5.8%2026-05-10 02:50
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:50
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:49
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:50
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-05-10 02:49
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%6.3%2026-05-10 02:49