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Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 09:35 UTC

Final: Melbourne Storm 18–4 Sydney Roosters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Storm (Local)

Prediction 40.65%2.46fair odd
EV -6.50%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -5.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.93%40.67%40.65%41.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.202.3047.62%45.19%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 54.52%1.83fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -6.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.61%54.69%54.52%56.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.661.7562.50%59.88%60.24%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.83%20.70fair odd
EV +20.76%
Edge +0.831%
Kelly +0.865%
Growth +0.180%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.68%4.64%4.83%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0019.4318.0025.005.88%5.15%5.56%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 40.65%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 54.52%; Draw: 4.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 25.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.76%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.19%EV -6.90%E -3.01%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.12%EV -10.59%E -6.46%K -16.55%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%EV +20.76%E +0.831%K +0.865%G +0.180%8.6%2026-05-30 09:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -12.59%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.61%EV -8.41%E -5.01%K -12.37%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -3.39%E -0.169%K -0.178%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-30 09:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -12.59%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.91%EV -9.50%E -5.73%K -14.40%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -3.39%E -0.169%K -0.178%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 08:50
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.95%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.82%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -13.05%E -0.725%K -0.768%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 08:50
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.95%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.82%EV -4.60%E -2.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -13.05%E -0.725%K -0.768%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 08:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.30%EV -14.63%E -6.96%K -13.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 53.88%EV -12.23%E -7.60%K -20.05%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.82%EV -13.05%E -0.725%K -0.768%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-30 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.93%EV -10.56%E -4.80%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.90%EV -12.78%E -7.98%K -21.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.17%EV -17.88%E -1.05%K -1.12%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-30 09:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%3.1%2026-05-30 09:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%3.4%2026-05-30 08:40
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%4.3%2026-05-30 08:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-05-29 09:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-05-30 09:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-05-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:40
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-05-30 08:50
SportsBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%5.3%2026-05-30 09:30
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-05-30 09:00
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-05-30 09:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-05-29 11:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-05-29 11:59
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%6.0%2026-05-30 08:50
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%6.1%2026-05-30 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%6.1%2026-05-30 08:50