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Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm (Local)
assuming max odds 1.35
New Zealand Warriors (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.60
Draw
assuming max odds 33.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 69.92%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 26.46%; Draw: 3.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.45%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.73%EV -7.70%E -5.83%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -11.37%E -3.39%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +19.45%E +0.589%K +0.608%G +0.118% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 00:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.83%EV -10.50%E -8.20%K -37.49%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -6.08%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -9.51%E -0.380%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-11 08:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.72%EV -9.10%E -7.00%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.05%E -2.95%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -9.51%E -0.380%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-09 03:08 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.74%EV -11.20%E -8.82%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -7.40%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -9.51%E -0.380%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-11 08:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.05%E -2.95%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -16.75%E -0.728%K -0.761%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 06:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.00%E -5.26%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.05%E -2.95%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -16.75%E -0.728%K -0.761%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 06:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.62%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -20.37%E -0.926%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-11 08:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.62%EV -5.60%E -4.15%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -20.37%E -0.926%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-11 08:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.27%EV -13.99%E -11.38%K -60.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.80%EV -11.37%E -3.39%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 3.93%EV -20.37%E -0.926%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-11 00:19 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.6% | 2026-04-11 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12% | 4.6% | 2026-04-11 09:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73% | 4.8% | 2026-04-11 09:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 08:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 09:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 5.0% | 2026-04-10 13:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 00:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-04-10 12:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.86% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.14% | 5.4% | 2026-04-11 08:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27% | 5.6% | 2026-04-11 00:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27% | 5.6% | 2026-04-11 00:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.86% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.14% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 10:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 10:00 |