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Melbourne Storm v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 05:02 UTC

Final: Melbourne Storm 42–20 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Storm (Local)

Prediction 41.46%2.41fair odd
EV -6.31%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -5.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.79%41.67%41.46%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.2648.78%46.62%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 53.84%1.86fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.90%53.70%53.84%55.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.691.671.7861.35%59.22%60.06%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.70%21.28fair odd
EV +17.51%
Edge +0.700%
Kelly +0.729%
Growth +0.128%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.60%4.64%4.70%5.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.0019.0025.005.56%5.00%5.26%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 41.46%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 53.84%; Draw: 4.70%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 25.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.51%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.84%EV -12.94%E -6.16%K -11.76%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.56%EV -9.54%E -5.68%K -14.04%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV +17.51%E +0.700%K +0.729%G +0.128%11.1%2026-08-08 05:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.79%EV -6.31%E -2.79%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.20%EV -10.08%E -6.04%K -15.05%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.01%EV +8.11%E +0.352%K +0.368%G +0.030%8.5%2026-08-08 04:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.57%EV -11.16%E -6.76%K -17.17%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -6.00%E -0.300%K -0.316%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-07 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.52%EV -10.87%E -5.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.78%EV -10.62%E -6.40%K -16.09%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.70%EV -10.70%E -0.563%K -0.594%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 04:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.27%EV -15.01%E -7.32%K -14.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 53.17%EV -12.24%E -7.51%K -19.42%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.56%EV -10.70%E -0.563%K -0.594%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-08 05:00
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.87%E -5.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -4.16%E -2.34%K -5.33%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -15.40%E -0.855%K -0.906%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 04:30
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.87%E -5.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.90%EV -4.16%E -2.34%K -5.33%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -15.40%E -0.855%K -0.906%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 04:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -12.94%E -6.16%K -11.76%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.12%EV -10.62%E -6.40%K -16.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.90%EV -15.40%E -0.855%K -0.906%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 05:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-08-08 05:00
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%4.0%2026-08-08 04:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%4.0%2026-08-08 05:00
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%4.7%2026-08-08 03:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%4.7%2026-08-08 03:45
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%4.7%2026-08-08 04:10
SportsBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%5.1%2026-08-08 05:00
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-08 04:40
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-08 04:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-08 04:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-08 04:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-08 04:40
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-08 03:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-07 06:00
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-08 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-08 04:15
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-07 05:20
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%5.6%2026-08-08 04:55
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%5.6%2026-08-08 04:55
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%6.0%2026-08-08 04:45

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