The School of OddsMelbourne Storm v Gold Coast Titans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Melbourne Storm (Local)
Prediction 70.54%1.42fair odd
EV -6.88%
Edge -5.21%
Kelly -21.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.53%70.41%70.54%72.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.251.281.281.3280%78%78%76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Gold Coast Titans (Visit)
Prediction 26.17%3.82fair odd
EV -0.557%
Edge -0.147%
Kelly -0.199%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%26.29%26.17%27.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.503.8030%29%29%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 3.29%30.43fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.060%
Kelly +0.062%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 31.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.31%3.29%4.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
21.0026.1125.0031.005%4%4%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
20 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.78%EV -6.88%E -5.21%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.25%EV -11.55%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +1.86%E +0.060%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 8.6% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.47%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -11.02%E -3.24%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV -1.42%E -0.047%K -0.049%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.35%EV -10.41%E -8.20%K -38.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.67%EV -12.33%E -3.68%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 2.98%EV -1.42%E -0.047%K -0.049%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-12 08:15 |
| LeoVegas | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.04%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -0.557%E -0.147%K -0.199%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -17.85%E -0.714%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Betsson | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.29%E -6.38%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.79%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%EV -17.85%E -0.714%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.29%E -6.38%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.79%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%EV -17.85%E -0.714%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.74%EV -10.41%E -8.20%K -38.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -8.41%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -17.85%E -0.714%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 70.94%EV -11.11%E -8.82%K -42.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.18%EV -7.10%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -24.43%E -1.06%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.53%EV -11.82%E -9.46%K -47.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -13.64%E -4.13%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -31.00%E -1.48%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-07-12 08:11 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-07-12 08:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45% | 4.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Bet Right | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12% | 4.6% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.36% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.64% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 08:15 |
| TAB | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-07-12 08:15 |
| PlayUp | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 5.2% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| TABtouch | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Casumo | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Neds | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 5.5% | 2026-07-12 08:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 5.5% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 5.5% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| Unibet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 5.8% | 2026-07-12 08:15 |
| BetRivers | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 5.8% | 2026-07-12 08:07 |
| Grosvenor | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84% | 6.4% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36% | 6.4% | 2026-07-12 08:14 |