The School of Odds

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs

2026-07-31 10:00 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Melbourne Storm (Local)

Prediction 57.05%1.75fair odd
EV -8.15%
Edge -5.06%
Kelly -13.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.98%57.05%57.05%57.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.521.561.561.6166%64%64%62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 39.42%2.54fair odd
EV -8.15%
Edge -3.50%
Kelly -6.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.42%39.42%39.42%40.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.222.202.3347%45%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.53%28.31fair odd
EV -8.15%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.326%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.45%3.53%3.53%3.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
22.0024.2524.5026.005%4%4%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -8.15%E -5.06%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.42%EV -8.15%E -3.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -8.15%E -0.314%K -0.326%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 05:15
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 56.72%EV -9.86%E -6.24%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -11.31%E -5.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.45%EV -8.15%E -0.314%K -0.326%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-22 04:35
Unibet (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 55.98%EV -12.15%E -7.89%K -22.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.10%EV -15.25%E -7.09%K -13.26%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.92%EV -22.28%E -1.01%K -1.06%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-22 04:35
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 56.40%EV -13.29%E -8.74%K -25.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.87%EV -15.25%E -7.09%K -13.26%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.73%EV -18.75%E -0.815%K -0.852%G +0.000%16.6%2026-07-22 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%5.0%2026-07-22 04:35