Language:English
Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm (Local)
assuming max odds 3.80
Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
Draw
assuming max odds 30.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Storm (Local): 25.38%; Canterbury Bulldogs (Visit): 70.37%; Draw: 4.25%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.52%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.47%EV -4.56%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.63%E -8.37%K -39.39%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +27.52%E +0.917%K +0.949%G +0.261% | 8.7% | 2026-07-31 09:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -14.97%E -4.47%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.06%EV -7.82%E -5.97%K -25.22%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.93%EV -2.23%E -0.097%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-31 09:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -16.24%E -4.92%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.82%EV -8.52%E -6.56%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.07%EV -6.48%E -0.295%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-31 09:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -4.82%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.96%EV -12.75%E -10.28%K -53.10%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.25%EV -10.74%E -0.511%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-31 08:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.58%EV -14.15%E -11.60%K -64.33%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.16%EV -10.74%E -0.511%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-07-31 09:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.62%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.64%EV -6.41%E -4.82%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.63%EV -14.99%E -0.749%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-31 09:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -26.39%E -9.10%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.40%EV -1.49%E -1.06%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -14.99%E -0.749%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-31 08:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.39%EV -7.12%E -5.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -23.49%E -1.30%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -3.55%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.39%EV -7.12%E -5.39%K -22.24%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -23.49%E -1.30%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 1.6% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48% | 3.9% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15% | 4.5% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19% | 5.0% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19% | 5.0% | 2026-07-31 09:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 10:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-07-31 09:58 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 09:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 08:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50% | 6.3% | 2026-07-31 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34% | 6.3% | 2026-07-31 08:50 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.