The School of Odds
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Kickoff: 2026-06-04 09:51 UTC

Final: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 28–14 South Sydney Rabbitohs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 58.09%1.72fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -6.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.09%58.11%58.09%59.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.561.551.6567.57%64.04%64.52%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 37.65%2.66fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.48%37.69%37.65%38.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5043.48%41.59%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.26%23.49fair odd
EV +27.72%
Edge +0.924%
Kelly +0.956%
Growth +0.265%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.98%4.21%4.26%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0023.1422.0030.005.56%4.32%4.55%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 58.09%; South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit): 37.65%; Draw: 4.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.49. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.72%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.03%EV -9.37%E -6.01%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV -8.51%E -3.50%K -5.95%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +27.72%E +0.924%K +0.956%G +0.265%8.6%2026-06-04 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.91%EV -11.70%E -7.70%K -22.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.10%EV -11.53%E -4.90%K -8.54%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.98%EV +27.72%E +0.924%K +0.956%G +0.265%11.7%2026-06-04 09:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.65%EV -14.02%E -9.47%K -29.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.74%EV -13.41%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.62%EV +2.18%E +0.091%K +0.095%G +0.002%15.2%2026-06-04 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.28%EV -11.70%E -7.70%K -22.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.70%EV -11.53%E -4.90%K -8.54%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.03%EV -6.34%E -0.288%K -0.302%G +0.000%12.9%2026-06-04 09:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -9.95%E -6.42%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -9.64%E -4.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -14.85%E -0.743%K -0.782%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-04 09:50
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -4.15%E -2.51%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -23.37%E -1.30%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-04 09:49
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -4.15%E -2.51%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.88%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -23.37%E -1.30%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-04 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-06-04 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%3.1%2026-06-04 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%4.0%2026-06-04 09:49
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%4.2%2026-06-04 09:50
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-06-04 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%4.5%2026-06-04 09:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-06-04 09:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-06-04 09:50
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%5.2%2026-06-04 09:49
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%5.3%2026-06-04 09:49
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-06-04 09:50
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-06-04 09:50
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-06-04 09:48
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-06-04 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%6.6%2026-06-04 09:50
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%6.6%2026-06-04 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%6.6%2026-06-04 09:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-06-04 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%7.9%2026-06-04 09:50
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%7.9%2026-06-04 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.89%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.11%10.2%2026-06-04 09:50