The School of Odds
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 06:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 63.48%1.58fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -6.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.45%63.48%62.85%65.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.5273.53%69.61%69.44%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Parramatta Eels (Visit)

Prediction 32.32%3.09fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.37%32.32%32.67%34.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.762.803.0040.00%36.26%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.21%23.77fair odd
EV +34.62%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.387%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%4.21%4.48%5.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.4422.0032.005.56%4.46%4.55%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 63.48%; Parramatta Eels (Visit): 32.32%; Draw: 4.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.62%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -8.59%E -5.97%K -19.53%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.22%EV -10.48%E -3.78%K -5.92%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +34.62%E +1.08%K +1.12%G +0.387%8.7%2026-04-23 09:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.92%EV -9.23%E -6.45%K -21.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -12.75%E -4.72%K -7.50%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.75%EV +0.962%E +0.040%K +0.042%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-24 01:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.42%EV -8.59%E -5.97%K -19.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -9.51%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.97%EV -3.25%E -0.141%K -0.148%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 08:05
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.42%EV -8.59%E -5.97%K -19.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -9.51%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.97%EV -3.25%E -0.141%K -0.148%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 08:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.49%EV -13.67%E -10.05%K -37.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.58%EV -14.36%E -5.42%K -8.70%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.92%EV -7.45%E -0.339%K -0.355%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-22 08:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 61.93%EV -12.40%E -8.99%K -32.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.19%EV -19.21%E -7.68%K -12.81%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.88%EV -7.45%E -0.339%K -0.355%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-24 01:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -11.13%E -7.95%K -27.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -3.05%E -1.02%K -1.53%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56%EV -15.87%E -0.793%K -0.835%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 13:40
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.45%EV -3.51%E -2.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.36%EV -9.51%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -24.28%E -1.35%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 01:44
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.45%EV -3.51%E -2.31%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.36%EV -9.51%E -3.40%K -5.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -24.28%E -1.35%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 01:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%1.4%2026-04-23 08:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-04-21 07:15
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-04-22 06:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-04-21 07:04
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%5.1%2026-04-21 07:04
TAB🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-04-21 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-04-21 09:55
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-04-21 09:55
PlayUp🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-04-21 07:44
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%5.5%2026-04-23 12:23
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:25
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:25
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 04:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:25
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:25
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 00:24
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-04-22 04:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-04-21 06:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%6.2%2026-04-22 00:30