The School of Odds

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys

2026-07-12 06:05 — NRL

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis)

16 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Odds
1.4668.49%Min
1.5464.88%Mean
1.5464.72%Median
1.6261.73%Max
Consensus probabilities
57.84%1.729Min
59.82%1.672Max
58.74%1.702Mean
58.75%1.702Median
58.74%1.702IQM
58.68%1.704Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.62 under the IQM model: 58.74%

EV -4.84%Edge -2.99%Kelly -7.81%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Odds
2.3043.48%Min
2.4341.15%Mean
2.4740.49%Median
2.5040.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
36.52%2.738Min
37.82%2.644Max
37.43%2.672Mean
37.61%2.659Median
37.43%2.672IQM
37.42%2.673Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 37.43%

EV -6.42%Edge -2.57%Kelly -4.28%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
20.005.00%Min
22.134.52%Mean
20.005.00%Median
29.003.45%Max
Consensus probabilities
3.18%31.478Min
4.68%21.346Max
3.83%26.105Mean
3.64%27.453Median
3.83%26.105IQM
3.91%25.607Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 29.00 under the IQM model: 3.83%

EV +11.09%Edge +0.382%Kelly +0.396%Growth +0.044%

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerManly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)Draw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.54I 64.94% NM 59.82%EV -9.54% E -6.20% K -17.67% G +0.000%2.49I 40.16% NM 37.00%EV -6.80% E -2.73% K -4.56% G +0.000%29.00I 3.45% NM 3.18%EV +11.09% E +0.382% K +0.396% G +0.044%8.5%2026-07-05 12:39
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52% NM 58.55%EV -8.96% E -5.78% K -16.28% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.82%EV -10.17% E -4.24% K -7.26% G +0.000%25.00I 4.00% NM 3.63%EV -4.23% E -0.169% K -0.176% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-05 08:05
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79% NM 59.29%EV -10.72% E -7.05% K -20.61% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 36.79%EV -8.29% E -3.39% K -5.72% G +0.000%23.00I 4.35% NM 3.92%EV -11.89% E -0.517% K -0.541% G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-05 08:24
NordicBet1.62I 61.73% NM 57.84%EV -4.84% E -2.99% K -7.81% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.48%EV -6.42% E -2.57% K -4.28% G +0.000%20.00I 5.00% NM 4.68%EV -23.39% E -1.17% K -1.23% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 13:55
Betsson1.62I 61.73% NM 57.84%EV -4.84% E -2.99% K -7.81% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.48%EV -6.42% E -2.57% K -4.28% G +0.000%20.00I 5.00% NM 4.68%EV -23.39% E -1.17% K -1.23% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 13:55
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52% NM 58.91%EV -8.96% E -5.78% K -16.28% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 36.52%EV -6.42% E -2.57% K -4.28% G +0.000%20.00I 5.00% NM 4.57%EV -23.39% E -1.17% K -1.23% G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-05 08:25
Unibet (FR)1.47I 68.03% NM 58.39%EV -13.65% E -9.29% K -29.05% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 37.32%EV -13.91% E -6.05% K -10.70% G +0.000%20.00I 5.00% NM 4.29%EV -23.39% E -1.17% K -1.23% G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-05 08:25
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49% NM 58.56%EV -14.24% E -9.76% K -30.96% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 37.17%EV -13.91% E -6.05% K -10.70% G +0.000%20.00I 5.00% NM 4.27%EV -23.39% E -1.17% K -1.23% G +0.000%17.0%2026-07-05 08:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet1.53I 65.36%2.52I 39.68%5.0%2026-07-05 05:55
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%2.60I 38.46%5.1%2026-07-04 22:05
Neds1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 08:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 08:05
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 10:00
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 12:35
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 12:34
Casumo1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 12:34
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 12:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%2.45I 40.82%5.3%2026-07-05 12:34
TAB1.50I 66.67%2.55I 39.22%5.9%2026-07-03 12:34
Grosvenor1.54I 64.94%2.43I 41.15%6.1%2026-07-05 12:34
Unibet1.54I 64.94%2.43I 41.15%6.1%2026-07-05 12:39
BetRivers1.54I 64.94%2.43I 41.15%6.1%2026-07-05 12:40
PointsBet (AU)1.55I 64.52%2.40I 41.67%6.2%2026-07-05 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%1.02I 98.04%96.1%2026-07-04 07:55