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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)
assuming max odds 1.48
North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.00
Draw
assuming max odds 30.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 62.85%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 32.73%; Draw: 4.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.60. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.73%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.20%EV -6.99%E -4.72%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -13.27%E -5.01%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +32.73%E +1.09%K +1.13%G +0.369% | 8.6% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.00%EV -10.13%E -7.08%K -23.56%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -13.27%E -5.01%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.00%EV +32.73%E +1.09%K +1.13%G +0.369% | 11.0% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.69%EV -9.50%E -6.60%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -3.45%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%EV +10.61%E +0.424%K +0.442%G +0.047% | 7.3% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -12.01%E -8.58%K -30.04%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -8.36%E -2.98%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.26%EV -7.09%E -0.338%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 63.79%EV -13.27%E -9.62%K -34.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.01%EV -9.99%E -3.63%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.19%EV -7.09%E -0.338%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.27%EV -8.87%E -6.12%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -1.81%E -0.604%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV -11.52%E -0.576%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.27%EV -8.87%E -6.12%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -1.81%E -0.604%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV -11.52%E -0.576%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -8.87%E -6.12%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -11.63%E -4.31%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -11.52%E -0.576%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 62.59%EV -12.64%E -9.10%K -32.42%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.83%EV -13.27%E -5.01%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.58%EV -15.94%E -0.839%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-07-12 06:03 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43% | 3.7% | 2026-07-12 06:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27% | 4.2% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12% | 4.7% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50% | 5.0% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35% | 5.0% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35% | 5.0% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96% | 5.2% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78% | 6.5% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78% | 6.5% | 2026-07-12 06:03 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62% | 7.0% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62% | 7.0% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80% | 7.4% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05% | 7.7% | 2026-07-12 06:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89% | 8.2% | 2026-07-12 06:04 |
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