The School of Odds
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 05:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 62.76%1.59fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.95%62.39%62.76%65.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.481.451.6172.99%67.42%68.97%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 33.33%3.00fair odd
EV -0.000%
Edge -0.000%
Kelly -0.000%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.72%33.85%33.33%38.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.672.583.0042.19%37.52%38.76%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.91%25.60fair odd
EV +21.11%
Edge +0.681%
Kelly +0.704%
Growth +0.148%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%3.77%3.91%4.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0023.4422.0031.004.76%4.27%4.55%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 62.76%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 33.33%; Draw: 3.91%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.11%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.36%EV -5.86%E -3.91%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.67%EV -14.00%E -5.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +21.11%E +0.681%K +0.704%G +0.148%8.7%2026-03-15 04:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.66%EV -13.39%E -9.70%K -35.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -1.67%E -0.565%K -0.855%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -2.33%E -0.093%K -0.097%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-15 05:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.38%EV -14.02%E -10.23%K -37.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.89%EV -3.33%E -1.15%K -1.75%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%EV -6.24%E -0.260%K -0.271%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-15 05:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.49%EV -10.25%E -7.17%K -23.84%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.75%EV -19.33%E -7.99%K -13.62%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.76%EV -10.15%E -0.441%K -0.461%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-15 05:00
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%EV -9.00%E -6.21%K -20.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.25%EV -14.05%E -0.639%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 05:00
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%EV -9.00%E -6.21%K -20.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.25%EV -14.05%E -0.639%K -0.669%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 05:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.27%EV -2.72%E -1.76%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -20.00%E -8.33%K -14.29%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.11%EV -14.05%E -0.639%K -0.669%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-09 11:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.95%EV +1.04%E +0.648%K +1.71%G +0.018%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.69%EV -21.00%E -8.86%K -15.33%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -17.96%E -0.855%K -0.898%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 12:04
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.95%EV +1.04%E +0.648%K +1.71%G +0.018%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.69%EV -21.00%E -8.86%K -15.33%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -17.96%E -0.855%K -0.898%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 12:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%1.0%2026-03-15 04:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%3.2%2026-03-15 05:00
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%4.3%2026-03-15 04:35
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.65%4.3%2026-03-15 05:00
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%4.6%2026-03-15 04:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%4.9%2026-03-15 04:25
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-15 00:51
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-15 04:30
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-15 01:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-15 01:29
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.75%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.25%5.3%2026-03-15 04:10
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:39
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:40
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:39
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-14 23:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%5.8%2026-03-15 03:14
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-03-14 23:45
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%6.2%2026-03-14 23:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-03-15 02:14