The School of Odds
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 09:35 UTC

Final: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 30–4 Melbourne Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 60.66%1.65fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.77%60.15%60.66%61.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.481.6268.97%66.06%67.34%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%35.58%35.35%38.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.552.552.7041.32%39.23%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.98%25.11fair odd
EV +23.44%
Edge +0.756%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.183%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.97%4.26%3.98%6.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0021.1321.0031.006.67%4.73%4.76%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 60.66%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 35.35%; Draw: 3.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.44%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.00%EV -5.36%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.03%EV -14.45%E -5.97%K -10.17%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +23.44%E +0.756%K +0.781%G +0.183%8.7%2026-06-27 08:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.89%EV -12.04%E -8.30%K -26.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -0.450%E -0.018%K -0.019%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-24 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.41%EV -9.61%E -6.45%K -19.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.30%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.29%EV -16.38%E -0.780%K -0.819%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-27 09:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.57%EV -10.22%E -6.90%K -21.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.16%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -16.38%E -0.780%K -0.819%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-27 09:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 59.94%EV -12.04%E -8.30%K -26.75%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.92%EV -14.45%E -5.97%K -10.17%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -16.38%E -0.780%K -0.819%G +0.000%15.0%2026-06-27 09:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.45%EV -10.22%E -6.90%K -21.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -20.36%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-27 09:29
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.77%EV -1.72%E -1.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.99%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -40.27%E -2.68%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-27 08:20
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.55%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -40.27%E -2.68%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%0.7%2026-06-27 09:30
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%4.2%2026-06-27 09:20
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 09:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 08:19
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 08:19
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 08:19
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%4.9%2026-06-27 08:19
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%5.0%2026-06-27 09:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-06-27 08:10
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-06-27 09:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-06-27 09:30
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-06-27 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-06-27 09:20
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-06-27 09:19
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%5.7%2026-06-27 08:19
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%5.7%2026-06-27 08:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%5.9%2026-06-26 09:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%6.0%2026-06-24 13:00
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%6.5%2026-06-27 08:19