The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 09:35 UTC

Final: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 12–10 Gold Coast Titans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 72.75%1.37fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -4.17%
Kelly -18.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.25%72.82%72.75%74.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.251.241.3086.21%80.28%80.65%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 23.72%4.22fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%23.65%23.72%24.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.723.893.954.0026.88%25.72%25.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.53%28.33fair odd
EV +16.49%
Edge +0.500%
Kelly +0.515%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.53%3.53%4.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0025.4325.0033.004.55%3.93%4.00%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 72.75%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 23.72%; Draw: 3.53%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.49%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.47%EV -7.60%E -5.99%K -28.17%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.74%EV -11.77%E -3.16%K -4.33%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +16.49%E +0.500%K +0.515%G +0.085%8.7%2026-05-23 08:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.87%EV -9.79%E -7.89%K -40.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.87%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.35%EV -4.69%E -0.174%K -0.180%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 00:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.71%EV -10.51%E -8.55%K -45.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -11.06%E -2.95%K -4.02%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.44%EV -8.22%E -0.316%K -0.329%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 00:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -11.24%E -9.22%K -51.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -5.13%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -11.75%E -0.470%K -0.490%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-23 06:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 74.40%EV -15.61%E -13.45%K -97.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.85%EV -6.31%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.75%EV -18.81%E -0.818%K -0.855%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-23 09:29
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.25%EV -5.42%E -4.17%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.13%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -22.34%E -1.02%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 08:39
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.25%EV -5.42%E -4.17%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.13%E -1.28%K -1.71%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -22.34%E -1.02%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 08:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-05-23 09:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.40%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%3.9%2026-05-23 09:29
TAB🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-05-23 09:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-05-23 09:19
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-05-23 08:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-05-23 08:29
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-05-23 08:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-05-23 07:09
SportsBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%5.0%2026-05-23 08:59
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
Casumo🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-05-23 08:29
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.90%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%5.1%2026-05-23 09:29
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-05-23 09:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-05-23 08:40
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%5.8%2026-05-23 08:29
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%5.8%2026-05-23 08:29
Matchbook◎1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%7.8%2026-05-23 09:10