Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Dolphins

2026-08-14 08:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

42%

55%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd

EV -7.75%

Edge -3.54%

Kelly -6.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.12%42.12%42.12%43.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.072.052.1950.00%48.25%48.78%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 54.58%1.83fair odd

EV -7.75%

Edge -4.59%

Kelly -11.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.09%54.58%54.58%54.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.651.651.6962.50%60.70%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.29%30.35fair odd

EV -7.75%

Edge -0.277%

Kelly -0.287%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.29%3.29%3.29%3.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

22.0024.7524.5028.004.55%4.04%4.08%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 42.12%; Dolphins (Visit): 54.58%; Draw: 3.29%. For Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.19, with an expected value of -7.75%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	2.19I 45.66%NM 42.12%EV -7.75%E -3.54%K -6.52%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.58%EV -7.75%E -4.59%K -11.24%G +0.000%	28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV -7.75%E -0.277%K -0.287%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-08-06 01:45
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%EV -11.54%E -5.50%K -10.49%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 53.63%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%EV -14.34%E -0.552%K -0.574%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-08-06 01:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 43.00%EV -15.76%E -7.88%K -15.76%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 53.09%EV -11.57%E -7.14%K -18.67%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 3.91%EV -27.52%E -1.25%K -1.31%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-06 01:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 42.79%EV -15.76%E -7.88%K -15.76%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 53.49%EV -12.67%E -7.92%K -21.11%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.72%EV -24.23%E -1.05%K -1.10%G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-08-06 01:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%	5.0%	2026-08-06 01:39