The School of Odds
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 06:07 UTC

Final: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 12–48 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.983%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.63%36.73%37.04%39.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.452.6643.48%40.52%40.82%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 59.25%1.69fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -8.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.32%59.18%58.81%61.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.531.531.6067.57%65.22%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.14%24.17fair odd
EV +7.57%
Edge +0.291%
Kelly +0.303%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.54%4.09%4.15%4.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0022.0022.0026.005.00%4.55%4.55%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 36.61%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 59.25%; Draw: 4.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.57%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet2.66I 37.59%NM 34.63%EV -2.62%E -0.983%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.83%EV -11.71%E -7.86%K -23.91%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV +7.57%E +0.291%K +0.303%G +0.023%8.6%2026-07-26 06:04
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.46%EV -13.97%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.93%EV -7.57%E -4.85%K -13.51%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV +3.43%E +0.137%K +0.143%G +0.005%10.7%2026-07-26 06:04
Betsson2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.25%EV -6.38%E -4.04%K -11.00%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -8.98%E -0.408%K -0.428%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 06:04
NordicBet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.25%EV -6.38%E -4.04%K -11.00%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -8.98%E -0.408%K -0.428%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 06:05
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.23%EV -6.64%E -2.61%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.69%EV -12.31%E -8.32%K -25.64%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.08%EV -8.98%E -0.408%K -0.428%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 06:04
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.04%EV -13.97%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 58.81%EV -12.31%E -8.32%K -25.64%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -13.12%E -0.625%K -0.656%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-26 06:04
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.46%EV -9.34%E -6.11%K -17.63%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.63%EV -17.26%E -0.863%K -0.908%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 06:00
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -15.80%E -6.87%K -12.15%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.66%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -17.26%E -0.863%K -0.908%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-25 13:05
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.29%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.27%EV -11.12%E -7.41%K -22.24%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.45%EV -17.26%E -0.863%K -0.908%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 06:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-07-26 06:05
BetOnline.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%3.2%2026-07-26 05:44
Pinnacle2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%4.0%2026-07-26 05:55
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%4.3%2026-07-26 06:04
TAB2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-07-26 06:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%5.1%2026-07-26 06:04
Unibet (NL)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%5.1%2026-07-26 06:04
Unibet (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%5.1%2026-07-26 06:04
Casumo2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%5.1%2026-07-26 06:04
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%5.1%2026-07-26 06:04
SportsBet2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%5.2%2026-07-26 06:04
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-26 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-26 04:39
Dabble (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-26 04:50
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-07-26 06:04
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-07-26 05:55
BetRivers2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%6.0%2026-07-26 06:04
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%6.0%2026-07-26 06:04
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%6.2%2026-07-26 06:00
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%6.5%2026-07-26 06:04