Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

2026-07-26 06:05 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

47%

49%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 47.12%2.12fair odd

EV -8.11%

Edge -4.16%

Kelly -8.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.78%47.12%47.12%47.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.821.881.881.9555%53%53%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 48.88%2.05fair odd

EV -8.11%

Edge -4.31%

Kelly -9.21%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.76%48.88%48.88%49.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.761.811.801.8857%55%56%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 4.00%25.03fair odd

EV -8.11%

Edge -0.352%

Kelly -0.368%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.92%4.00%4.00%4.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

20.0021.7522.0023.005%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.11%E -4.16%K -8.53%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.88%EV -8.11%E -4.31%K -9.21%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV -8.11%E -0.352%K -0.368%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-15 02:58
Winamax (DE)	1.92I 52.08%NM 47.02%EV -9.52%E -4.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 49.06%EV -10.06%E -5.47%K -11.98%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -8.11%E -0.352%K -0.368%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-07-15 02:59
Unibet (FR)	1.84I 54.35%NM 46.78%EV -13.29%E -7.22%K -15.82%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 48.91%EV -13.97%E -7.94%K -18.38%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.30%EV -20.09%E -1.00%K -1.06%G +0.000%	16.2%	2026-07-15 02:59
Winamax (FR)	1.82I 54.95%NM 47.15%EV -14.23%E -7.82%K -17.36%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 48.76%EV -13.97%E -7.94%K -18.38%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.09%EV -16.10%E -0.767%K -0.805%G +0.000%	16.5%	2026-07-15 02:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%	4.2%	2026-07-15 02:59