The School of Odds
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 08:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local)

Prediction 52.85%1.89fair odd
EV +0.406%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.87%52.63%54.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.801.781.9056.82%55.60%56.18%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 47.15%2.12fair odd
EV -0.975%
Edge -0.464%
Kelly -0.886%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.88%47.13%47.37%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.022.042.1052.63%49.46%49.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local): 52.85%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 47.15%. For Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.406%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.406%E +0.213%K +0.451%G +0.002%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.41%E -5.48%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-03 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.24%E -1.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.63%E -3.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 23:14
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -2.24%E -1.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -7.10%E -3.61%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 08:00
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.29%E -1.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.69%E -2.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-06 22:06
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.82%E -2.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.75%E -2.35%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 07:59
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%EV -3.82%E -2.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%EV -5.22%E -2.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.82%E -2.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.69%E -2.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 07:59
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.82%E -2.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.69%E -2.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.69%E -2.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 04:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.69%E -2.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 22:24
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -5.94%E -3.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -0.975%E -0.464%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-07 06:00
TAB🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 05:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 07:59
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 08:00
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 07:59
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.46%E -3.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.33%E -1.63%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 07:59
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -6.99%E -3.97%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -3.80%E -1.86%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 08:00
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -6.99%E -3.97%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -3.80%E -1.86%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%0.7%2026-03-07 08:00
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%4.9%2026-03-07 08:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.23%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%6.9%2026-03-07 06:00
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.23%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%6.9%2026-03-07 06:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%8.5%2026-03-07 07:59
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.30%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.88%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%9.2%2026-03-07 07:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%9.4%2026-02-21 07:44
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%9.4%2026-02-21 07:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%10.3%2026-03-07 07:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.85%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.87%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-03-07 05:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.41%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.32%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%11.4%2026-03-07 07:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.05%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.86%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.09%15.5%2026-03-07 07:59