The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 07:31 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 19–18 Penrith Panthers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.599%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%22.48%22.49%24.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.064.104.4027.03%24.65%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Penrith Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 74.02%1.35fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -4.11%
Kelly -18.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.22%73.85%73.92%74.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.241.241.2884.03%80.83%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.72%26.91fair odd
EV +41.23%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.459%

assuming max odds 38.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.38%3.67%3.59%4.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0026.5725.0038.004.55%3.76%4.00%2.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 22.26%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 74.02%; Draw: 3.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.91. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 38.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.23%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -16.51%E -4.40%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.51%EV -8.96%E -7.28%K -38.94%G +0.000%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.38%EV +41.23%E +1.08%K +1.11%G +0.459%10.6%2026-06-20 07:30
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.56%EV -8.22%E -6.63%K -34.23%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.89%EV +18.93%E +0.592%K +0.611%G +0.116%8.2%2026-06-20 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -6.49%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.98%EV -11.18%E -9.31%K -55.88%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -7.09%E -0.283%K -0.295%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-20 07:29
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -17.62%E -4.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.22%EV -8.22%E -6.63%K -34.23%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.58%EV -7.09%E -0.283%K -0.295%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-20 07:29
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -2.04%E -0.463%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.12%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.77%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.31%EV -18.24%E -0.829%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-20 07:30
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.56%EV -2.04%E -0.463%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.12%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.77%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.31%EV -18.24%E -0.829%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-20 07:30
NetBet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.67%EV -14.28%E -3.71%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 73.36%EV -11.92%E -10.01%K -62.72%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.97%EV -18.24%E -0.829%K -0.868%G +0.000%14.6%2026-06-20 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.20%2.0%2026-06-20 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%4.0%2026-06-20 07:29
Bet Right🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%4.4%2026-06-20 07:30
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%4.8%2026-06-20 07:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-06-20 07:30
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%5.0%2026-06-20 07:30
PlayUp🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%5.0%2026-06-20 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%5.0%2026-06-20 07:30
Pinnacle🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 25.65%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.35%5.1%2026-06-20 07:29
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-20 07:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-20 07:29
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%5.3%2026-06-20 07:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%5.5%2026-06-20 07:30
Neds🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%5.5%2026-06-20 07:30
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%5.6%2026-06-20 07:27
Dabble (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%6.0%2026-06-20 07:29
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%6.3%2026-06-20 07:30
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%6.6%2026-06-20 07:29
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%7.6%2026-06-20 07:30
LeoVegas🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%8.3%2026-06-20 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.36%9.7%2026-06-20 07:30