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Gold Coast Titans v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 09:53 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 8–30 North Queensland Cowboys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 37.89%2.64fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.83%37.89%39.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.382.352.5243.48%41.95%42.55%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 57.51%1.74fair odd
EV -7.99%
Edge -4.99%
Kelly -13.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.32%57.71%57.51%59.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.6066.67%64.21%64.31%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.60%21.74fair odd
EV +19.58%
Edge +0.753%
Kelly +0.783%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.55%4.46%4.60%5.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0021.7520.5026.005.56%4.60%4.88%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 37.89%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 57.51%; Draw: 4.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.74. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.58%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -4.51%E -1.79%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.87%EV -11.44%E -7.43%K -21.19%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +19.58%E +0.753%K +0.783%G +0.153%8.5%2026-08-06 09:39
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.33%EV -7.16%E -2.92%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.01%EV -10.87%E -7.01%K -19.75%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.66%EV +14.98%E +0.599%K +0.624%G +0.094%9.3%2026-08-06 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.25%EV -12.84%E -5.58%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.14%EV -9.14%E -5.78%K -15.76%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV +14.98%E +0.599%K +0.624%G +0.094%10.8%2026-08-06 09:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -9.05%E -3.77%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.47%EV -12.02%E -7.85%K -22.67%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.26%EV -3.41%E -0.163%K -0.171%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-06 08:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -12.84%E -5.58%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -7.99%E -4.99%K -13.32%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -8.01%E -0.401%K -0.422%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-04 23:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.76%EV -12.84%E -5.58%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.90%EV -13.74%E -9.16%K -27.48%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.34%EV -8.01%E -0.401%K -0.422%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-06 09:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.53%EV -12.84%E -5.58%K -9.88%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.81%EV -10.29%E -6.60%K -18.38%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.66%EV -12.61%E -0.664%K -0.701%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 09:50
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -5.26%E -2.11%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -7.99%E -4.99%K -13.32%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -17.21%E -0.956%K -1.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35%2.6%2026-08-06 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%3.2%2026-08-06 08:00
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%3.6%2026-08-06 09:39
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%4.3%2026-08-06 09:50
SportsBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%5.0%2026-08-06 09:10
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-08-06 09:40
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-08-06 09:50
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-08-06 08:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-08-06 08:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-08-06 06:10
Dabble (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-08-06 08:35
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%5.8%2026-08-06 09:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%6.2%2026-08-06 09:50
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-08-06 09:35
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-08-06 09:39
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-08-06 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-08-06 09:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-08-06 09:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-08-06 09:35
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%7.0%2026-08-06 09:35

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