The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Titans v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 04:00 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 12–36 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV -7.48%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.15%28.89%28.91%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.183.2034.48%31.92%31.45%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 67.50%1.48fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -9.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.30%67.49%67.50%68.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.341.4276.92%73.76%74.63%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.59%27.89fair odd
EV +11.14%
Edge +0.359%
Kelly +0.371%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.98%3.61%3.59%4.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0025.0025.0031.004.55%4.00%4.00%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 28.91%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 67.50%; Draw: 3.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.14%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.06%EV -8.05%E -2.53%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.96%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.77%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.98%EV +11.14%E +0.359%K +0.371%G +0.041%8.2%2026-05-17 03:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -8.92%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.71%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.08%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.49%EV -6.79%E -0.261%K -0.271%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 03:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.25%EV -10.90%E -8.26%K -34.06%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -10.37%E -0.415%K -0.432%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-13 04:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.37%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.47%EV -10.22%E -7.69%K -30.98%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -10.37%E -0.415%K -0.432%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 03:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.84%EV -16.15%E -5.57%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.56%EV -12.25%E -9.42%K -40.83%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.61%EV -13.96%E -0.582%K -0.607%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-17 03:25
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.30%EV -4.15%E -2.92%K -9.88%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -21.13%E -0.960%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 03:50
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -7.48%E -2.34%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.30%EV -4.15%E -2.92%K -9.88%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.28%EV -21.13%E -0.960%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%0.8%2026-05-17 03:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%3.8%2026-05-17 02:40
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%4.0%2026-05-17 03:40
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-05-17 03:40
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-05-17 03:45
SportsBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%5.2%2026-05-17 03:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%5.3%2026-05-17 02:15
PlayUp🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%5.3%2026-05-17 03:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-05-17 03:55
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-05-17 03:55
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-05-17 03:55
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-05-17 03:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-05-17 03:55
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%5.6%2026-05-17 03:55
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-05-16 05:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-05-16 05:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-05-17 02:10
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-05-17 02:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-05-17 02:15
Dabble (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-05-17 03:50
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%6.3%2026-05-17 02:10