Gold Coast Titans v New Zealand Warriors

2026-08-01 05:00 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

36%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 36.41%2.75fair odd

EV -5.69%

Edge -2.20%

Kelly -3.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.62%36.41%36.41%37.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.352.472.502.5943%40%40%39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 59.61%1.68fair odd

EV -4.62%

Edge -2.89%

Kelly -7.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.14%59.61%59.61%61.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.441.521.501.6069%66%66%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.97%25.17fair odd

EV +11.24%

Edge +0.401%

Kelly +0.416%

Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.29%3.97%3.97%4.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

20.0022.0020.5028.005%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	2.59I 38.61%NM 35.62%EV -5.69%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.09%EV -9.98%E -6.61%K -19.57%G +0.000%	28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +11.24%E +0.401%K +0.416%G +0.047%	8.4%	2026-07-22 04:40
Winamax (DE)	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.03%EV -8.97%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.05%EV -10.58%E -7.05%K -21.16%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -8.63%E -0.375%K -0.392%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-07-22 07:35
Winamax (FR)	2.35I 42.55%NM 36.45%EV -14.43%E -6.14%K -10.69%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 59.48%EV -14.16%E -9.83%K -32.17%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.08%EV -16.57%E -0.789%K -0.829%G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-07-22 07:35
NordicBet	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -8.97%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -4.62%E -2.89%K -7.69%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -20.54%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-22 05:25
Betsson	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -8.97%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -4.62%E -2.89%K -7.69%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -20.54%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-22 05:25
Unibet (FR)	2.40I 41.67%NM 36.03%EV -12.61%E -5.25%K -9.01%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 59.64%EV -13.56%E -9.35%K -30.13%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.32%EV -20.54%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-07-22 07:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%	5.2%	2026-07-22 04:35