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Gold Coast Titans v New Zealand Warriors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gold Coast Titans (Local)
assuming max odds 2.50
New Zealand Warriors (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.62
Draw
assuming max odds 28.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 37.89%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 58.60%; Draw: 3.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 28.00, with an expected value of -1.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -5.28%E -2.11%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -5.07%E -3.13%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -36.81%E -2.04%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 03:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -5.28%E -2.11%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -5.07%E -3.13%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -36.81%E -2.04%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 36.96%EV -5.66%E -2.27%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.76%EV -9.75%E -6.33%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV -1.70%E -0.061%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-01 04:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -7.17%E -2.93%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.70%EV -6.24%E -3.90%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.62%EV -29.79%E -1.49%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -9.07%E -3.78%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.55%EV -9.17%E -5.91%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -12.24%E -0.489%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-31 01:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.77%EV -9.07%E -3.78%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.11%EV -8.58%E -5.50%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%EV -22.77%E -1.03%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -10.96%E -4.66%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.85%EV -9.75%E -6.33%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.24%EV -26.28%E -1.25%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.34%EV -12.10%E -5.22%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 58.53%EV -13.27%E -8.97%K -27.65%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.13%EV -26.28%E -1.25%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.86%E -5.59%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.60%EV -8.58%E -5.50%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.33%EV -5.21%E -0.193%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03% | 3.1% | 2026-08-01 04:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73% | 4.5% | 2026-07-31 05:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73% | 4.5% | 2026-07-31 05:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30% | 5.0% | 2026-07-31 23:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 04:24 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 11:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 21:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 21:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 21:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 21:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 21:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 04:41 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 04:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76% | 6.2% | 2026-07-28 08:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91% | 6.6% | 2026-08-01 04:59 |
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