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Gold Coast Titans v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 04:00 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 38–32 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 37.13%2.69fair odd
EV -7.17%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.52%37.15%37.13%37.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.442.482.5042.55%41.04%40.32%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 58.46%1.71fair odd
EV -6.47%
Edge -4.04%
Kelly -10.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.73%58.51%58.46%59.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.551.6067.57%64.42%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.41%22.68fair odd
EV +19.06%
Edge +0.706%
Kelly +0.733%
Growth +0.140%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.41%4.34%4.41%5.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.5620.0027.005.56%4.86%5.00%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.15%EV -7.91%E -3.19%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.44%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.08%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV +19.06%E +0.706%K +0.733%G +0.140%8.5%2026-07-19 03:05
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.88%E -4.53%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.42%EV -9.98%E -6.48%K -18.47%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.09%EV -2.99%E -0.136%K -0.142%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-18 17:20
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -12.74%E -5.42%K -9.44%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.85%EV -9.98%E -6.48%K -18.47%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.24%EV -7.40%E -0.352%K -0.370%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 16:10
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.60%EV -11.80%E -0.590%K -0.621%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 17:20
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.08%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.57%EV -11.80%E -0.590%K -0.621%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-16 15:55
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.83%EV -12.74%E -5.42%K -9.44%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.73%EV -9.98%E -6.48%K -18.47%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.44%EV -11.80%E -0.590%K -0.621%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-18 17:19
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%EV -12.74%E -5.42%K -9.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 58.56%EV -13.48%E -9.11%K -28.09%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.56%EV -16.21%E -0.853%K -0.901%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-19 03:55
Betsson2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -20.62%E -1.15%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 16:39
NordicBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.17%E -2.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -20.62%E -1.15%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-07-19 03:55
BetOnline.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%3.2%2026-07-19 03:40
Pinnacle2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%4.0%2026-07-19 03:59
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-07-19 03:59
Bet Right2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-07-19 03:40
SportsBet2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%5.1%2026-07-19 03:40
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-19 03:55
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-19 01:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-19 01:10
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-19 01:10
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-19 01:10
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-07-19 01:10
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-07-19 03:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-07-14 07:09
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-07-14 07:09
BetRivers2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%5.7%2026-07-19 01:10
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%5.7%2026-07-19 01:10
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%6.1%2026-07-19 01:10
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%6.2%2026-07-19 01:15
Dabble (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%6.2%2026-07-18 07:20