The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Titans v Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 08:02 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 20–24 Dolphins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 23.68%4.22fair odd
EV -0.534%
Edge -0.127%
Kelly -0.167%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.97%23.68%23.42%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.003.483.734.20100.00%28.73%26.85%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 73.00%1.37fair odd
EV -7.29%
Edge -5.74%
Kelly -26.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%73.00%73.07%74.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.211.251.27100.00%82.64%80.32%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.32%30.16fair odd
EV +12.72%
Edge +0.374%
Kelly +0.385%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.66%3.32%3.51%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.0023.7525.0034.00100.00%4.21%4.00%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 23.68%; Dolphins (Visit): 73.00%; Draw: 3.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.72%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -14.74%E -4.10%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.26%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.99%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.66%EV +12.72%E +0.374%K +0.385%G +0.049%10.7%2026-09-04 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.27%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.21%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.49%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +9.40%E +0.285%K +0.294%G +0.028%8.7%2026-09-04 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -12.37%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.83%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -26.99%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.51%EV -13.81%E -0.531%K -0.552%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 08:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -7.64%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.97%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.99%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.65%EV -17.12%E -0.685%K -0.713%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 10:45
NetBet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.11%EV -11.19%E -2.98%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 73.43%EV -13.86%E -11.74%K -76.98%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.47%EV -17.12%E -0.685%K -0.713%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-04 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -12.37%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.11%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.49%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%EV -20.44%E -0.851%K -0.889%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 07:55
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -0.534%E -0.127%K -0.167%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.83%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.99%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.19%EV -27.07%E -1.23%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 06:40
Betsson🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -76.32%E -76.32%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -27.00%E -27.00%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -96.68%E -96.68%K +0.000%G +0.000%200.0%2026-09-04 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95%1.1%2026-09-04 08:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%3.9%2026-09-04 07:20
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%4.4%2026-09-04 07:59
Bet Right🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%4.8%2026-09-04 08:00
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-09-04 07:40
Neds🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%5.0%2026-09-04 07:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%5.0%2026-09-04 07:25
TAB🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%5.1%2026-09-04 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%5.2%2026-09-04 05:24
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%5.4%2026-09-04 06:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%5.7%2026-09-03 08:25
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%6.0%2026-09-04 07:50
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%6.6%2026-09-04 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%6.6%2026-09-04 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%6.6%2026-09-04 08:00
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%6.6%2026-09-04 08:00
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%7.7%2026-09-04 08:00
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%7.7%2026-09-04 08:00
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 28.54%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.46%8.5%2026-09-04 07:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%1.21I 82.64%NM 74.84%10.4%2026-09-04 08:00