The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Titans v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 04:02 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 22–30 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd
EV +0.563%
Edge +0.166%
Kelly +0.235%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%30.01%29.58%33.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.012.983.4037.04%33.18%33.61%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 66.67%1.50fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -7.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.13%66.16%66.67%67.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.351.4575.19%73.06%74.07%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.75%26.66fair odd
EV +27.51%
Edge +0.809%
Kelly +0.834%
Growth +0.229%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.64%3.83%3.75%5.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.6321.5034.005.56%4.06%4.65%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 29.58%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 66.67%; Draw: 3.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.66. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.51%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.13%EV -9.99%E -7.40%K -28.55%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.67%EV +27.51%E +0.809%K +0.834%G +0.229%10.3%2026-08-23 03:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.41%EV -12.75%E -4.32%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.95%EV -10.66%E -7.95%K -31.35%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.64%EV +27.51%E +0.809%K +0.834%G +0.229%11.5%2026-08-23 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.30%EV -7.13%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.64%EV -9.33%E -6.86%K -25.91%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +12.51%E +0.417%K +0.431%G +0.054%8.7%2026-08-23 03:58
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.07%EV -20.14%E -7.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.87%EV -5.33%E -3.75%K -12.68%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.06%EV -17.49%E -0.795%K -0.833%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 00:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 30.73%EV -16.59%E -5.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.15%EV -11.33%E -8.52%K -34.32%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.13%EV -21.24%E -1.01%K -1.06%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-23 03:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -20.14%E -7.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -3.33%E -2.29%K -7.39%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -24.99%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-17 06:49
Betsson🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV +0.563%E +0.166%K +0.235%G +0.001%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.93%EV -9.99%E -7.40%K -28.55%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -32.49%E -1.81%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 03:54
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV +0.563%E +0.166%K +0.235%G +0.001%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.93%EV -9.99%E -7.40%K -28.55%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -32.49%E -1.81%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 03:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%3.4%2026-08-23 04:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%4.2%2026-08-23 03:49
Pinnacle🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%4.5%2026-08-23 03:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%4.7%2026-08-23 03:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-23 01:35
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-23 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-23 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-23 01:35
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%4.8%2026-08-23 01:35
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%4.9%2026-08-23 03:59
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%4.9%2026-08-23 04:00
TAB🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%4.9%2026-08-23 03:59
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%5.3%2026-08-23 03:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-08-23 03:59
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-08-23 03:59
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-08-22 22:44
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-08-22 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%6.3%2026-08-23 03:59
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%6.4%2026-08-23 01:35