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Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 05:00 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Titans 12–28 Canberra Raiders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Titans (Local)

Prediction 58.36%1.71fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -5.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.09%58.45%58.36%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.551.6568.97%64.16%64.52%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 37.10%2.70fair odd
EV -7.25%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -4.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.23%37.12%37.10%37.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.452.472.5042.55%40.89%40.49%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.54%22.03fair odd
EV +27.10%
Edge +0.968%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.272%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.29%4.43%4.54%5.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0021.4323.0028.005.88%4.67%4.35%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Titans (Local): 58.36%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 37.10%; Draw: 4.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.03. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.10%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.42%EV -9.54%E -6.16%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.29%EV -8.36%E -3.39%K -5.69%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +27.10%E +0.968%K +1.00%G +0.272%8.6%2026-05-02 04:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.53%EV -10.12%E -6.57%K -18.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.96%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV +4.40%E +0.191%K +0.200%G +0.009%10.9%2026-05-02 04:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.84%EV -11.29%E -7.43%K -21.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -10.96%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV +4.40%E +0.191%K +0.200%G +0.009%11.8%2026-05-02 04:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 59.52%EV -15.38%E -10.60%K -34.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.73%EV -12.82%E -5.45%K -9.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.75%EV +4.40%E +0.191%K +0.200%G +0.009%15.9%2026-05-02 04:50
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -3.70%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -7.25%E -2.90%K -4.83%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -18.30%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 04:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -3.70%E -2.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -7.25%E -2.90%K -4.83%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -18.30%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 04:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.44%EV -9.54%E -6.16%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.23%EV -7.25%E -2.90%K -4.83%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33%EV -22.83%E -1.34%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 04:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-05-02 04:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.61%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.39%3.4%2026-05-02 03:55
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%4.3%2026-05-02 03:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-05-01 14:45
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%5.1%2026-05-02 04:50
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-05-02 04:46
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-05-02 03:55
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-05-02 04:01
Dabble (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-05-02 03:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-05-02 03:50
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-05-02 03:50
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:45
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:46
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:45
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:46
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:46
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:46
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:46
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-05-02 04:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%6.2%2026-05-02 04:25